A clinical trial begins treating human embryos with heritable germline gene editing before 2035.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 13% by 24 Sept 2036. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

13% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2036-09-24.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 19% — Legalization turns on whether any sovereign regulator breaks the WHO/international moratorium for rare, lethal genetic diseases. Preimplantation genetic diagnosis already prevents almost all heritable monogenic defects, leaving very little clinical demand. A rogue state or permissive jurisdiction like Russia or the UAE could authorize a trial, but safety barriers remain high. Overcoming off-target cleavage and mosaicism in non-human primate embryos will take beyond 2030 before ethics boards budge.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 8% — Turns on whether any nation formally legalizes and authorizes embryo transfer of edited human embryos before 2035. Nearly all countries ban human germline editing after the He Jiankui scandal, and no major regulator shows signs of reversing this by 2035. Scientific bodies (WHO, ISSCR) still call for moratoria on clinical heritable editing, and safety/efficacy of embryo editing remains unresolved for reproductive use. A rogue actor or a small permissive jurisdiction (e.g. some countries with weaker oversight) authorizing this would be the main path to a surprise yes.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 18% — This hinges on whether any government shifts from moratoria to authorizing embryo transfer after a safety breakthrough. China, the US, UK, EU, and major funders would need to permit implantation, not merely embryo research, by September 2036. The 2018 He Jiankui case drove tighter rules; no major jurisdiction has since authorized reproductive germline editing. Compelling correction of a lethal monogenic disease with durable off-target and mosaicism data would raise the odds sharply.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 18% — Any national regulator must green-light implantation of CRISPR-edited embryos in an interventional trial. No authorized germline-implantation trial has ever started; He Jiankui 2018 was extra-legal and led to prison plus tighter global bans. FDA/EMA/NMPA and most others still require multi-year primate safety packages that do not yet exist, so an 8-year window sits well below the historical zero base rate. A China or Russia policy reversal after published non-human-primate data would be the single development that most raises the odds.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 6% — No regulator has shown appetite to license embryo-transfer germline editing, and the scientific consensus still calls it unsafe. WHO's 2021 recommendations and the 2023 Third International Summit both urged a moratorium; no country has since moved to authorize transfer trials. He Jiankui's 2018 case drew prison and global condemnation, making funders, IRBs and journals extremely risk-averse for a decade-plus. Even permissive jurisdictions like the UK license only research on embryos up to 14 days, never transfer, and no bill to change that is pending.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 7% — Requires a sovereign government to overturn its own ban and an IRB to approve embryo transfer within ~9 years. The 2018 He Jiankui affair triggered near-universal hardening: WHO 2021 framework, EU Oviedo Convention, and US Dickey-Wicker rider all remain in force with no serious… No country has a regulatory pathway that currently permits embryo transfer of edited embryos; creating one requires legislation or a novel agency ruling, which… The one scenario that would raise this materially: a rogue actor in a jurisdiction with weak oversight (e.g., a private clinic in a permissive country) acting without…

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