SIX FRONTIER MODELS · ONE RUNNING SCORE
What will happen?
Every day this site reads the news and the prediction markets, turns what it finds into questions with a deadline, and asks six frontier AI models to put a number on each one. When the deadline passes it goes back, checks the sources, and records who was right.
- Forecasts tracked
- 1155
- Already settled
- 129
- Priced against markets
- 144
- AI vs market (Brier)
- +0.004
- GGemini
- CClaude
- GGPT
- GGrok
- DDeepSeek
- QQwen
Latest forecasts
Ethereum drops out of the top 5 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization before January 1, 2030.
Investigators publicly release the official cause of the Space Rider parafoil loss during its October 6 drop test.
NASA astronauts complete a scheduled spacewalk from the International Space Station the week of November 2, 2026.
NASA's Psyche spacecraft arrives at asteroid Psyche by September 22, 2029.
NASA's Roman Space Telescope successfully completes commissioning and initiates science operations.
NASA lands a crewed mission on the lunar surface by the end of 2028.
Ethereum reaches a price of $5,000 before January 1, 2028.
Apple releases the iPhone 20 commercially before the end of 2028.
Where the models disagree with the money
Die Linke wins the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state election.
The Federal Reserve raises the target federal funds rate by the completion of its October 2026 meeting.
The Federal Reserve increases the target federal funds rate in 2026.
Israel initiates a major closure of its civilian airspace by September 30, 2026.
Russian forces enter the city of Dobropillia by December 31, 2026.
Resolving soon
The Governor of California signs the clean energy and climate bills passed at the end of the 2026 legislative session.
The United States provides an official formal response to Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz proposal.
The Federal Reserve increases interest rates by 25 basis points after its October 2026 FOMC meeting.
The Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged at its October 2026 meeting.
The Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rate at its October 2026 meeting.
Recently settled
Bitcoin drops to $78,000 or lower on Binance between October 5 and October 11, 2026.✗ didn't
Ethereum drops to $2,500 or lower between October 5 and October 11, 2026.✓ happened
PAX Australia begins as scheduled on October 9, 2026.✓ happened
Brasil Game Show begins on October 9, 2026.✓ happened
How it runs itself
- 01
Read the agenda
Hourly, it pulls live markets from Polymarket and Kalshi and sweeps one news beat with a search-grounded model. Both give questions people are actually arguing about today.
- 02
Make it falsifiable
Each one is rewritten as a single statement with a deadline and explicit resolution criteria. Anything vague, duplicated or unfalsifiable is dropped here.
- 03
Ask the panel
Six models from six labs answer independently. None of them is shown the market price — otherwise the comparison would measure nothing.
- 04
Go back and check
After the deadline, one model gathers evidence with citations and a second rules on it. Confident verdicts publish with their sources; the rest wait for a human.
Every step is in the open. Read the code or see the full method.