THE ARCHIVE

Every forecast,
in order.

1233 questions. Sorted by newest.

1 week 1 month 3 months 6 months 1 year 3 years 5 years 10 years 50 years

◆ Artificial Intelligence 141 ▲ Markets & Economy 139 ⬢ Geopolitics 109 ▢ Policy & Law 97 ◇ Gaming 94 ⚡ Energy 85 ▽ Security & Defense 76 ◉ Climate & Environment 69 ✦ Space 66 ▣ Consumer Tech 48 ◈ Crypto & Finance 47 ❖ Biotech 38 ✚ Health & Medicine 36 ▶ Transportation 35

1W 3 Nov 2026

Total commitments to the 1W public token sale exceed $20M before November 3, 2026.

◈ Crypto & Finance spread 59 vs market -70

25%

AI vs 95%

1W 4 Nov 2026

The Republican nominee wins the Michigan U.S. Senate election in 2026.

▢ Policy & Law spread 31 vs market +8

36%

AI vs 28%

3Y 28 Oct 2029

Full-time employment in commercial graphic and visual arts drops by over 20% before 2028.

⌂ Work & Labor spread 16

13%

3Y 28 Oct 2029

A major automaker sells a production electric vehicle equipped with a simulated manual transmission before 2028.

▶ Transportation spread 70

73%

3Y 28 Oct 2029

California mandates that 100% of new passenger cars sold in the state be zero-emission vehicles starting by 2035.

▶ Transportation spread 62

53%

5Y 28 Oct 2031

AI causes net global employment to decline by at least 5% before 2030.

⌂ Work & Labor spread 10

3M 29 Nov 2026

Invictus Gaming wins the 2026 League of Legends World Championship.

◇ Gaming spread 3 vs market -6

AI vs 9%

1W 4 Nov 2026

Xavier Becerra wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election.

▢ Policy & Law spread 12 vs market -87

10%

AI vs 97%

1W 4 Nov 2026

The Democratic Party wins the South Carolina U.S. Senate race in 2026.

▢ Policy & Law spread 5 vs market -24

AI vs 28%

1W 4 Nov 2026

The Democratic Party wins the NC-09 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections.

▢ Policy & Law spread 24 vs market -19

13%

AI vs 32%

3Y 28 Oct 2029

The EU AI Act compliance deadline for Annex III high-risk AI systems takes effect on 2 December 2027.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 23

88%

1M 28 Nov 2026

Meta's revised commercial terms take effect on 20 November 2026.

▣ Consumer Tech spread 33

80%

1M 28 Nov 2026

The UK Information Commissioner's Office closes its call for evidence on agentic AI data protection on 20 November 2026.

○ Privacy spread 15

90%

1Y 29 Oct 2027

The Monetary Authority of Singapore's AI Risk Management Guidelines take effect on 7 October 2027.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 9

88%

3M 27 Jan 2027

The Article 50(2) transparency compliance deadline for pre-existing AI systems takes effect on 2 December 2026.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 91

91%

1M 28 Nov 2026

The European Commission closes its public consultation on draft implementing rules for EU AI Act enforcement on 9 November 2026.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 9

90%

10Y 26 Oct 2036

Electric vehicles account for more than 50% of global new passenger car sales in a calendar year before 2035.

▶ Transportation spread 52

62%

3Y 28 Oct 2029

Tesla begins commercial customer deliveries of its Optimus humanoid robot before 2028.

◎ Robotics spread 54

22%

5Y 28 Oct 2031

A certified flying car or roadable aircraft is delivered to a private retail buyer before 2031.

▶ Transportation spread 49

30%

5Y 28 Oct 2031

A certified eVTOL or roadable aircraft becomes commercially available for passenger service in the United States before 2030.

▶ Transportation spread 42

48%

10Y 26 Oct 2036

An autonomous surgical robot performs a complete invasive human operation without human intervention before 2032.

✚ Health & Medicine spread 68

11%

3M 1 Dec 2026

The US publicly announces the end of its naval blockade of Iran by November 30, 2026.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 14 vs market -16

11%

AI vs 27%

3M 29 Nov 2026

Puma Shen is elected Mayor of Taipei in the November 2026 municipal election.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 6 vs market -29

AI vs 34%

1W 4 Nov 2026

A Republican candidate wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina.

▢ Policy & Law spread 6 vs market +24

97%

AI vs 73%

1W 4 Nov 2026

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raises interest rates this week.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 54

35%

3M 26 Jan 2027

The Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rate on December 9, 2026.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 30

18%

1W 4 Nov 2026

The Bank of Japan leaves its policy rate unchanged at its October 29–30, 2026 meeting.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 16

86%

1W 4 Nov 2026

The European Central Bank leaves interest rates unchanged at its October 29, 2026 meeting.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 16

84%

1W 4 Nov 2026

The Bank of Canada keeps interest rates unchanged on October 28, 2026.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 15

68%

1W 4 Nov 2026

The Federal Reserve leaves its policy rate unchanged at its October 28, 2026 decision.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 89

88%

10Y 25 Oct 2036

Autonomous robotics cause a net decline in total global employment before 2035.

⌂ Work & Labor spread 13

5Y 27 Oct 2031

A commercially available general-purpose domestic robot autonomously cleans an entire standard home before 2030.

◎ Robotics spread 59

13%

50Y 15 Oct 2076

The global population of active autonomous robots exceeds the human population before 2040.

◎ Robotics spread 53

50Y 15 Oct 2076

Autonomous robots achieve political or military governance over human society before 2050.

◎ Robotics spread 8

3M 29 Nov 2026

Chiang Wan-an wins the 2026 Taipei mayoral election.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 31 vs market +6

74%

AI vs 68%

3M 1 Jan 2027

Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel by the end of 2026.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 18 vs market -3

18%

AI vs 21%

Every forecast,in order.

Total commitments to the 1W public token sale exceed $20M before November 3, 2026.

The Republican nominee wins the Michigan U.S. Senate election in 2026.

Full-time employment in commercial graphic and visual arts drops by over 20% before 2028.

A major automaker sells a production electric vehicle equipped with a simulated manual transmission before 2028.

Grand Theft Auto VI features drivable electric cars upon initial launch.

The FDA approves AbbVie's Biologics License Application for etentamig.

NASA's Psyche spacecraft arrives at the asteroid Psyche in summer 2029.

NASA launches Artemis III by the end of summer 2027.

California mandates that 100% of new passenger cars sold in the state be zero-emission vehicles starting by 2035.

AI causes net global employment to decline by at least 5% before 2030.

Invictus Gaming wins the 2026 League of Legends World Championship.

Xavier Becerra wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election.

The Democratic Party wins the South Carolina U.S. Senate race in 2026.

The Democratic Party wins the NC-09 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections.

The EU AI Act compliance deadline for Annex III high-risk AI systems takes effect on 2 December 2027.

Meta's revised commercial terms take effect on 20 November 2026.

The UK Information Commissioner's Office closes its call for evidence on agentic AI data protection on 20 November 2026.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore's AI Risk Management Guidelines take effect on 7 October 2027.

The Article 50(2) transparency compliance deadline for pre-existing AI systems takes effect on 2 December 2026.

The European Commission closes its public consultation on draft implementing rules for EU AI Act enforcement on 9 November 2026.

Electric vehicles account for more than 50% of global new passenger car sales in a calendar year before 2035.

Tesla begins commercial customer deliveries of its Optimus humanoid robot before 2028.

A certified flying car or roadable aircraft is delivered to a private retail buyer before 2031.

A certified eVTOL or roadable aircraft becomes commercially available for passenger service in the United States before 2030.

An autonomous surgical robot performs a complete invasive human operation without human intervention before 2032.

The US publicly announces the end of its naval blockade of Iran by November 30, 2026.

Puma Shen is elected Mayor of Taipei in the November 2026 municipal election.

A Republican candidate wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raises interest rates this week.

The Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rate on December 9, 2026.

The Bank of Japan leaves its policy rate unchanged at its October 29–30, 2026 meeting.

The European Central Bank leaves interest rates unchanged at its October 29, 2026 meeting.

The Bank of Canada keeps interest rates unchanged on October 28, 2026.

The Federal Reserve leaves its policy rate unchanged at its October 28, 2026 decision.

Autonomous robotics cause a net decline in total global employment before 2035.

A commercially available general-purpose domestic robot autonomously cleans an entire standard home before 2030.

The global population of active autonomous robots exceeds the human population before 2040.

Autonomous robots achieve political or military governance over human society before 2050.

Chiang Wan-an wins the 2026 Taipei mayoral election.

Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel by the end of 2026.

Every forecast,
in order.