EA Sports FC 26 includes an officially licensed FIFA World Cup game mode.
Following EA's split with FIFA, speculation continues over whether FIFA licensing will return. Resolves as true if EA Sports FC 26 features a branded FIFA World Cup mode at launch or via update.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 9%.
They broadly agree, 14 points between GPT at 18% and Gemini at 4%.
Nothing is settled until 22 Sept 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
-
GPTOpenAI
This hinges on FIFA and EA signing a new tournament-rights deal before the 2026 World Cup content window closes.
- EA ended its FIFA naming deal in 2022, while FIFA launched FIFAe and has pursued licensing outside EA.
- FIFA must grant EA World Cup marks and tournament rights; that normally requires a public commercial agreement and long lead time.
- A 2026 licensing announcement or EA's inclusion of World Cup branding in FC 26 marketing would sharply raise the odds.
18% -
GrokxAI
EA-FIFA must strike a limited World Cup license before FC 26 support ends.
- FIFA's exclusive 2K partnership (announced 2022, first title 2026) removes any need to license EA.
- No talks or leaks of a World Cup carve-out have surfaced in four years post-split.
- A surprise FIFA/EA announcement before late 2026 would be the only thing that moves this above single digits.
12% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
EA paid to drop FIFA branding and already has World Cup rights via its own federation deals, so a FIFA-branded mode is redundant.
- EA's 2022 split ended FIFA name rights; the 2026 World Cup mode in FC 26 is licensed via national teams and FIFA's tournament rights, not the FIFA brand.
- FIFA has been shopping its brand to rival studios (e.g., talks with UFL, 2K) since 2023, making a return to EA unlikely before 2027.
- Base rate for a publisher re-signing a brand it publicly abandoned within four years is very low; EA's own statements call the split permanent.
12% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Hinges on EA and FIFA reconciling licensing terms after their 2022 split, with no signs of talks progressing.
- FIFA licenses World Cup content separately (2K got 2026 WC rights) and EA's brand is now FC, not FIFA, showing continued separation.
- No public reports of EA-FIFA relicensing talks; EA has invested heavily in building FC as independent brand equity.
- A surprise EA-FIFA partnership announcement or World Cup 2026 tie-in deal would be the main thing to change this.
6% -
GeminiGoogle
EA and FIFA parted acrimoniously over exorbitant license fees and EA has already proven its independent branding thrives without them.
- FIFA demanded over $1B every four years, prompting EA to successfully pivot to UEFA, CONMEBOL, and domestic league partnerships instead.
- Gianni Infantino committed FIFA to building competing AAA games rather than renewing an exclusive tournament license with EA Sports.
- The 2026 World Cup wraps up before FC 26 releases in late 2026, removing commercial urgency for a tournament DLC during this cycle.
4% -
QwenAlibaba
EA and FIFA's licensing split is deep-rooted; no credible signal of reconciliation before FC 26's cycle.
- EA's split with FIFA was driven by cost and control disputes; neither side has signaled willingness to re-engage on World Cup branding.
- FIFA has been building its own gaming partnerships (e.g., with other publishers), reducing incentive to license back to EA.
- The 2026 World Cup is in North America, which could theoretically create commercial pressure, but EA already has stadium/player licenses without needing the FIFA brand.
4%
6 of 6 models answered · 14 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 22 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.