Minecraft Dungeons II arrives on Xbox Game Pass on September 29, 2026.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 88% by 2 Oct 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

88% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-10-02.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 94% — Official Xbox Game Pass wave announcements four days out are almost never delayed or pulled. First-party Microsoft titles scheduled in bi-weekly Game Pass roadmaps meet target dates over 95% of the time. A game-breaking certification bug or unexpected deployment failure is the only realistic hurdle within a 96-hour window. An unannounced last-minute delay from Mojang or Xbox before Tuesday would instantly invalidate this timeline.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 83% — Whether Xbox/Mojang keeps the already-announced Sept 29, 2026 Game Pass launch date without a delay. Microsoft officially scheduled this in the Game Pass wave announcement, and Game Pass launch dates rarely slip once publicly set this close to release. As of today (Sept 25) the date is only 4 days out, leaving very little time for an unannounced delay to surface. Occasional last-minute Game Pass slips do happen (patching, cert issues), so some residual risk remains despite the short window.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 91% — It chiefly depends on Microsoft keeping a publicly scheduled first-party Game Pass launch four days from now. Microsoft controls both Minecraft and Game Pass, so no outside publisher approval or separate licensing deadline is needed. Wave announcements typically convert to availability on the stated day; a four-day delay is uncommon absent a build, certification, or outage issue. A Microsoft/Xbox Wire postponement notice before September 29 citing certification or a launch-blocking defect would sharply lower this.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 88% — Whether the already-announced Game Pass wave-2 slot ships without a last-minute delay. Microsoft/Mojang must certify and push the build by 29 Sep; no delay has been flagged as of 25 Sep. Announced Game Pass dates hit ~90% of the time once wave 2 is public; last-minute slips are uncommon. A certification failure or server issue in the next four days is the only realistic mover downward.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 88% — Whether the announced Game Pass date holds through the four-day window, which is mostly about Microsoft not slipping the drop. Microsoft controls the date and has already published it in the September wave 2 lineup, so no third party can block it. Game Pass day-one additions rarely slip once listed in a wave announcement; the main risk is a last-minute store or certification delay. The 2026-10-02 resolution gives a three-day buffer, but a slip past that would require an unusual late pull, which is rare.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 88% — This hinges on whether the game actually launches on the announced date without a last-minute delay. Microsoft has already listed it on the official Game Pass wave 2 schedule, which means internal QA and certification are likely complete. Game delays after being placed on a dated wave are rare (~5-10% historically) but not unheard of—day-one patches or server issues could technically push availability. A last-minute removal would require an active decision by Mojang/Xbox to pull it, which would be unusual this close to the date.

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