The FDA withdraws marketing approval for Amgen's Tavneos.
UK and EMA authorities took regulatory action against Tavneos following data integrity concerns and a NEJM retraction. Amgen is contesting an FDA withdrawal request.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel thinks this is unlikely: the median is 18%.
They do not agree: Gemini puts it at 78% and DeepSeek at 12%, 66 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 14 Sept 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GeminiGoogle
FDA rarely backs down after requesting withdrawal amid NEJM retraction and European regulatory action
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202678% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Amgen contesting; FDA withdrawal is slow, contested process, but EU/UK precedent raises risk
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202618% -
GPTOpenAI
FDA withdrawals are slow and contested; Amgen can litigate or mitigate before final action.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202618% -
GrokxAI
FDA contested withdrawals require lengthy hearings; rare even with data issues, 1yr left.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202618% -
QwenAlibaba
FDA withdrawals are rare; Amgen contesting; process typically takes 1-2+ years even when initiated.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202618% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Amgen contesting; FDA withdrawal rare and slow, no precedent action yet in US.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202612%
6 of 6 models answered · 66 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.