A commercially available general-purpose domestic robot autonomously cleans an entire standard home before 2030.
While robot vacuums exist, general household tidying and multi-room cleaning remains unsolved. Resolves if a commercial unit completes varied domestic chores without teleoperation.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 13%.
They do not agree: GPT puts it at 63% and Qwen at 4%, 59 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 27 Oct 2031, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GPTOpenAI
This hinges on whether embodied-AI systems become reliable enough for unattended homes, not merely impressive demos.
- Tesla, Figure, 1X and Chinese makers have five years to ship consumer robots, but safety and service networks are slow.
- Robot vacuums show paid demand, while mobile manipulators still fail on clutter, stairs, cables and long-horizon recovery.
- A 2028–29 launch with independently verified full-home trials would raise the odds sharply; serious injury or liability rules would cut them.
63% -
GeminiGoogle
Turns on solving robust tactile manipulation and unstructured 3D navigation safely at consumer price points within five years.
- Leading humanoid makers like Figure and Tesla are targeting factory floors first where standardized tasks ease deployment.
- Hardware and foundation models struggle with generalized edge-case manipulation like folding diverse fabrics or clearing stairs.
- A commercial release by late 2029 requires reliable, unguided pilot units operating in complex consumer homes by 2027.
23% -
GrokxAI
Humanoid/home robots must reach reliable unstructured autonomy and consumer sales by end-2029.
- Tesla, Figure, 1X or similar must finish industrial pilots then certify and ship consumer units in 2028-29.
- Homes require robust pick-and-place of thousands of novel objects plus clutter navigation, far beyond 2026 demos.
- Robotics commercialization has lagged decades (Roomba still limited); only a 2027 foundation-model leap would lift odds.
18% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Whether a consumer robot can autonomously handle varied, unstructured household chores by 2030.
- No commercial robot today does general tidying; even 2026 humanoids like Figure 03 and Optimus are teleoperated demos, not shipping products.
- Hardware cost, dexterity, and safety certification for a home robot remain unsolved; no company has announced a consumer launch date before 2030.
- The 5-year window is shorter than the 10-15 years typical for a new consumer robotics category to reach mass-market reliability.
8% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Needs a commercially available, affordable general-purpose home robot doing varied chores autonomously by late 2031.
- Current humanoid/mobile manipulation robots (Figure, 1X, Tesla Optimus) are still pre-commercial, costly, and far from reliable unsupervised multi-task home chores.
- Robot vacuums solved only narrow navigation+suction; folding laundry, dishes, tidying clutter across varied homes remains a major unsolved generalization and dexterity…
- Five-year horizon is short given current state; a surprising leap in foundation-model robotics with real commercial deployment could change this, but no clear product…
7% -
QwenAlibaba
Manipulation dexterity in unstructured home environments is the binding constraint, and no hardware is close to commercial readiness.
- No company has demonstrated a robot performing more than 2-3 distinct cleaning tasks autonomously in a real home as of late 2026.
- Commercial availability requires safety certification, cost reduction, and reliability at scale—typically 2-3 years beyond a working prototype.
- A surprise demo from a well-funded lab (Tesla, Figure, 1X) showing full-home cleaning would be the development that most changes this estimate.
4%
6 of 6 models answered · 59 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 28 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.