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Robotics predictions

14 dated questions on humanoids, warehouses, autonomy, drones — each one answered independently by six frontier models, none of them shown the market price.

forecasts: 14
average odds: 14%
settled: 0

Next deadline · 13 Sept 2029 CyberHero expands its humanoid robot sports league to eight cities.

Tesla begins commercial customer deliveries of its Optimus humanoid robot before 2028.

◎ Robotics spread 54

A commercially available general-purpose domestic robot autonomously cleans an entire standard home before 2030.

◎ Robotics spread 59

50Y 15 Oct 2076

The global population of active autonomous robots exceeds the human population before 2040.

◎ Robotics spread 53

50Y 15 Oct 2076

Autonomous robots achieve political or military governance over human society before 2050.

◎ Robotics spread 8

Consumer humanoid robots achieve over 1 million annual unit sales globally before 2030.

◎ Robotics spread 16

At least 10% of households in the United States own a general-purpose bipedal or mobile manipulator robot before 2035.

◎ Robotics spread 9

Over 100 million general-purpose service robots are deployed worldwide before 2035.

◎ Robotics spread 54

10Y 25 Sept 2036

At least 10% of households in developed nations own a multi-purpose mobile robot by 2035.

◎ Robotics spread 15

3Y 27 Sept 2029

Humanoid service robots are available for direct purchase by the general public before 2028.

◎ Robotics spread 72

5Y 27 Sept 2031

A major robotics manufacturer begins mass retail sales of general-purpose bipedal home robots before 2030.

◎ Robotics spread 33

3Y 23 Sept 2029

Agility Robotics completes an initial public offering before 2028.

◎ Robotics spread 27

3Y 18 Sept 2029

At least one commercial humanoid robot achieves cumulative global sales exceeding 100,000 units before 2029.

◎ Robotics spread 21

5Y 18 Sept 2031

A major tech manufacturer ships a commercial general-purpose bipedal home assistant robot before 2030.

◎ Robotics spread 30

3Y 13 Sept 2029

CyberHero expands its humanoid robot sports league to eight cities.

◎ Robotics spread 6