A commercially viable fault-tolerant quantum computer is deployed before 2030.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 9% by 6 Nov 2031. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

9% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2031-11-06.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 9% — Physical-to-logical qubit overhead and decoding bottlenecks cannot be resolved and commercially scaled within three years. Roadmaps from IBM, Google, and PsiQuantum slate true fault-tolerant utility around 2029 to 2033, with commercial viability trailing. Hardware requires scaling from tens of logical qubits to hundreds with sub-microsecond decoders, an insurmountable leap by 2029. A peer-reviewed demonstration of quantum advantage on economically relevant algorithms by late 2027 would push odds higher.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 4% — Fault tolerance at commercial scale by 2030 requires orders-of-magnitude error-correction gains that haven't materialized yet. Current best logical qubit counts are in the dozens with error rates still above thresholds needed for sustained commercial advantage. Roadmaps from IBM, Google, and Quantinuum target 2029-2033 for early fault-tolerant systems, not true commercial deployment at scale. A surprise breakthrough in error correction or qubit coherence combined with a killer app could move this, but no such signal exists yet.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 17% — It turns on whether logical-qubit scaling and error correction cross from lab demonstrations to reliable economic advantage by 2029. Google, IBM, Quantinuum and others must show sustained logical error suppression, then build and operate far larger machines by 2030. No organization has yet demonstrated the thousands-to-millions of physical qubits and low overhead typically needed for broad fault tolerance. Odds rise sharply if a 2027–28 system runs a valuable, independently verified workload cheaper or better than leading classical hardware.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 12% — Scaling from ~10 logical qubits to thousands of commercially useful ones in under three years. IBM, Google, Quantinuum and PsiQuantum must ship 1000+ high-fidelity logical qubits plus software by end-2029; current public demos remain 1–2 orders of magnitude short. Historical quantum milestones (50-qubit supremacy, error-corrected logical qubits) have slipped 3–7 years past announced dates, so the 2030 commercial-FTQC target sits… Only an unforeseen hardware leap (photonic or topological) would move the odds; none is visible in 2026 roadmaps or funding.

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DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 8% — Whether any lab demonstrates a logical qubit with error rates low enough to scale to thousands within three years. Google, IBM, Quantinuum, and PsiQuantum all target fault-tolerant logical qubits by 2029-2030, but none has demonstrated a single logical qubit below the surface-code… The gap from ~100 physical qubits per logical qubit to thousands needed for commercial advantage requires 10-100x improvements in gate fidelity and qubit count, which… A commercially viable machine needs a killer application with quantum advantage; even optimistic roadmaps place useful chemistry or optimization problems in the 2030s…

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 4% — Even IBM's aggressive 2029 fault-tolerance target is a lab milestone, not a commercially viable deployment. IBM's Starling roadmap targets 2029 for a fault-tolerant prototype, but 'commercially viable' requires solving real problems for paying customers—a much higher bar. As of late 2025, the best results (Google Willow, Quantinuum) show logical qubits below break-even but at scales far too small for useful computation; scaling to… Expert surveys (McKinsey 2024, BCG) consistently place commercial quantum advantage in the 2030s; a 2029 deployment would require a breakthrough in both hardware and…

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