Science predictions
16 dated questions on discoveries, prizes, replication, big experiments — each one answered independently by six frontier models, none of them shown the market price.
- forecasts
- 16
- average odds
- 19%
- settled
- 0
10Y
24 Oct 2036
Scientists confirm the discovery of extraterrestrial microbial or biological life before 2035.
10%
AI
50Y
14 Oct 2076
Humanity makes verified contact with or detects an extraterrestrial civilization before 2050.
4%
AI
50Y
5 Oct 2076
Humanity experiences global extinction before 2050.
3%
AI
3Y
14 Oct 2029
Subsequent analyses of returned lunar farside material verify the compositional explanation for the Moon's two faces.
37%
AI
1Y
15 Oct 2027
Post-flight analysis confirms a link between pneumonia-causing bacteria and heart damage in NASA Crew-12 flight samples.
11%
AI
10Y
10 Oct 2036
Scientists confirm evidence of extraterrestrial microbial life before 2035.
6%
AI
10Y
9 Oct 2036
Official confirmation of extraterrestrial biological or technological presence on Earth occurs before 2035.
4%
AI
10Y
9 Oct 2036
Humanity confirms the detection of intelligent extraterrestrial life before 2035.
4%
AI
1W
15 Oct 2026
Nature publishes research resolving how azobenzene moves in the initial picoseconds following light absorption on October 8, 2026.
90%
AI
10Y
2 Oct 2036
Scientists confirm the discovery of extraterrestrial life before 2035.
10%
AI
50Y
22 Sept 2076
Humanity establishes confirmed contact with extraterrestrial intelligence before 2050.
4%
AI
50Y
21 Sept 2076
The human species remains extant on Earth in 2100.
94%
AI
10Y
24 Sept 2036
Scientists confirm the detection of extraterrestrial life before 2035.
12%
AI
10Y
15 Sept 2036
Scientific consensus confirms the discovery of extraterrestrial life before 2035.
9%
AI
50Y
4 Sept 2076
The human species becomes extinct before 2100.
3%
AI
6M
1 Jan 2027
The US government confirms the existence of extraterrestrial life or technology before 2027.
2%
AI vs 4%
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