A Democrat wins the Kansas US Senate seat in the 2026 midterm election.
Kansas holds a US Senate election in November 2026. The market resolves true if the official Democratic nominee wins the general election or any subsequent runoff.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 6%.
They broadly agree, 5 points between GPT at 9% and Claude at 4%.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 34%, so the models are 28 points less confident than people with cash on the outcome — one of the wider gaps in the archive.
Nothing is settled until 4 Nov 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- -28 pts
- Moved this week
- +5 pts
- Volume
- $304K
The models are sharply less confident than traders risking real money: 6% against 34%.
What each one said
-
GPTOpenAI
Kansas’s strong Republican federal baseline makes an upset depend on an unusually weak GOP nominee or a national Democratic wave.
- Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932; recent statewide federal races usually give Republicans double-digit margins.
- The Democratic nominee must overcome the Republican nominee in just over a month, with no runoff normally expected under Kansas rules.
- A major GOP scandal, fracture, or polling showing a genuine single-digit race would materially raise the chance.
9% -
GeminiGoogle
Kansas has not elected a Democratic US Senator since 1932, requiring an extraordinary GOP collapse to flip.
- Incumbent Roger Marshall or any mainstream Republican starts with an overwhelming double-digit federal baseline in Kansas.
- Even popular Democrats like Governor Laura Kelly face steep federal drop-off compared to state-level races.
- A massive scandal or unelectable fringe nominee could open a path, but nationalized midterms heavily favor the Kansas GOP.
8% -
QwenAlibaba
Kansas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932; the GOP nominee leads in a state Trump won by 15+ points.
- Kansas last sent a Democrat to the Senate in 1932; even Laura Kelly's 2018 gubernatorial win came in a uniquely fractured GOP field.
- The Republican nominee (likely Roger Marshall or a similarly strong GOP candidate) benefits from a partisan lean of R+10 to R+15 in federal races.
- A Democrat would need a historically unprecedented national wave or a catastrophic Republican nominee collapse in the final month to close a double-digit gap.
7% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Kansas Senate seat is deeply Republican; Democrats haven't won a Senate race there since 1932.
- Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, an extreme historical base rate against this.
- No competitive polling or fundraising signals suggest 2026 is an exception; Republican incumbent/nominee heavily favored.
- Only a late-breaking scandal or major national wave could change this, and no such event appears to be driving odds currently.
4% -
GrokxAI
Kansas remains a deep-red state with a GOP incumbent one month from Election Day.
- Roger Marshall (R) is the 2020 incumbent; Kansas last sent a Democrat to the Senate in 1932.
- Cook PVI R+10 and recent Senate margins of 15–25 points leave no plausible path without a scandal or 20-point national wave.
- A late October poll showing the Democrat within 8 points would be the only development that would move this number.
4% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932; nothing in 2026 suggests that streak breaks.
- Kansas is R+10 to R+14 in presidential and Senate results; the last Democratic Senate win was 1932, a 94-year base rate near zero.
- The Democratic nominee would need to flip roughly 300,000+ votes in a state Trump won by 15 points in 2024, with no top-tier recruit or scandal visible.
- Only a Republican collapse — nominee withdrawal, felony conviction, or a national wave exceeding 2018 — would move this above single digits.
4%
6 of 6 models answered · 5 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Question sourced from Polymarket on 3 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.