Policy & Law predictions

96 dated questions on bills, courts, antitrust, AI acts, tax — each one answered independently by six frontier models, none of them shown the market price.

Policy & Law predictions

Xavier Becerra wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election.

The Democratic Party wins the South Carolina U.S. Senate race in 2026.

The Democratic Party wins the NC-09 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections.

A Republican candidate wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina.

The 60-day pause on sweeping U.S. sanctions against Russia expires without being extended.

South Korea's culture ministry announces new funding or formal esports policy changes at G-STAR 2026.

The Republican nominee wins the Maine U.S. Senate election in 2026.

The Republican nominee wins the Texas gubernatorial election in 2026.

J.D. Vance wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination.

A proposition establishing a one-time wealth tax on billionaires passes in California's 2026 general election.

France enters a declared state of emergency by December 31, 2026.

A new White House Press Secretary is announced by November 30, 2026.

The United States imposes duties on imports from the top five buyers of Russian oil and gas following the October 18, 2026 executive order trigger.

Representative Ritchie Torres introduces legislation regarding digital game ownership in the US Congress.

The Trump administration announces a new permanent White House Press Secretary by October 31, 2026.

The European Union adopts additional sanctions listings against Russia before December 31, 2026.

The United States and China maintain their bilateral trade truce through January 2027.

The US Supreme Court issues a decision on the legality of presidential tariff authority before July 2027.

The US Supreme Court rules on the constitutionality of birthright citizenship before the end of June 2027.

The US Supreme Court issues a ruling in a major ballroom or historic dance hall licensing dispute before the end of its 2026-2027 term.

The US-China trade truce remains in effect through January 31, 2027.

The European Union or the United States enacts a nationwide ban on sales of new internal combustion engine passenger cars taking effect by 2035.

A federal court issues an injunction or ruling against the presidential executive order blocking state AI regulations.

A court strikes down the Trump administration's relaxed vehicle fuel-economy rules.

The Democratic Party wins the Michigan U.S. Senate election in 2026.

The U.S. administration imposes tariffs or sanctions under the Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act by October 18, 2026.

Israel holds its general election on October 27, 2026.

Coinbase Financial Markets closes all Michigan customer positions in sports-related event contracts by October 10, 2026.

Republicans win the Senate and Democrats win the House of Representatives in the 2026 US midterm elections.

Israel holds its planned national elections before the end of October 2026.

A new justice is confirmed to the US Supreme Court before January 2029.

The US Supreme Court issues a decision on state mail-in ballot deadlines before November 2026.

Josh Shapiro wins the 2028 Democratic nomination for President of the United States.

A Democrat wins the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election.

Iraq completes its roadmap to bring all weapons outside state control under government authority by June 30, 2027.

The Democratic nominee wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas.

A Republican candidate wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas.

A Republican candidate wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas.

A Democrat wins the Kansas US Senate seat in the 2026 midterm election.

Oklahoma enacts a statewide moratorium on new data centers by June 30, 2027.

The European Union formally extends its Russia sanctions regime currently under review.

Oklahoma enacts a statewide data center moratorium by December 31, 2027.

Missouri enacts a statewide data center moratorium by December 31, 2027.

The Republican Party wins control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections.

The Republican nominee wins the Ohio U.S. Senate race in 2026.

The US Supreme Court issues a ruling on the constitutionality of state AR-15 or assault weapon bans before July 2027.

The US Supreme Court issues a decision addressing birthright citizenship before July 2027.

The Governor of California signs the clean energy and climate bills passed at the end of the 2026 legislative session.

A revised UN sanctions-monitoring mechanism on Iran is adopted before the current arrangement lapses.

Draft environmental resolutions are formally tabled or adopted before the close of the UN General Assembly high-level session on September 28, 2026.

Steve Hilton wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election.

The Republican nominee wins the Nebraska U.S. Senate race in 2026.

Dan Sullivan wins reelection in the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate race.

The White House officially restores press credentials to all three barred news outlets by December 31, 2026.

The White House imposes tariffs on nations importing Russian oil and gas under the Lindsey O. Graham Act by December 31, 2026.

The Election Commission of India publishes the draft electoral roll for the upcoming assembly cycle before December 2026.

Andy Beshear wins the 2028 Democratic nomination for President of the United States.

BYD is fully removed from the Section 1260H Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027.

The United States imposes a 100% tariff on imports from India over purchases of Russian oil.

A vacancy arises on the US Supreme Court before December 31, 2028.