A fault-tolerant quantum computer is made commercially available before 2032.
Major technology firms and research labs are racing to build error-corrected quantum machines capable of commercially viable computational tasks.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel thinks this is unlikely: the median is 24%.
They do not agree: GPT puts it at 58% and Qwen at 7%, 51 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 16 Sept 2036, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GPTOpenAI
It hinges on whether logical-qubit error correction scales from demonstrations to a sellable, useful service in the early 2030s.
- IBM, Google, Quantinuum and others must sustain low logical error rates while scaling to enough logical qubits by 2031.
- Roadmaps commonly target error-corrected machines around 2029–2033, but hardware roadmaps have often slipped by years.
- A convincing 2028–2030 result with hundreds of high-fidelity logical qubits would materially raise the odds.
58% -
GeminiGoogle
Turns on whether logical qubit architectures can scale to utility scale commercially before 2032 rather than in lab prototypes.
- IBM, Google, and Quantinuum target fault-tolerant commercial access between 2029 and 2033, but hardware timelines routinely slip.
- Reaching hundreds of logical qubits requires solving interconnect and cryocooling bottlenecks that lack proven industrial solutions.
- A demonstrated commercial contract for a utility-scale logical processor by 2028 would substantially boost these odds.
37% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Turns on whether logical-qubit scaling and error correction reach commercial thresholds within roughly a decade.
- IBM, Google, Quantinuum, and others project fault-tolerant systems around 2029-2033, but hardware roadmaps historically slip by years.
- Current devices have only dozens of logical qubits with limited error suppression, far short of thousands needed for commercially useful fault tolerance.
- A breakthrough in error-correction efficiency (e.g., better codes, higher physical qubit fidelity) before 2032 would meaningfully raise this probability.
25% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
This turns on whether logical-qubit error rates fall fast enough for a vendor to sell a machine by 2032.
- Google's 2024 Willow result showed below-threshold surface-code scaling, but current chips carry roughly 100 physical qubits per logical qubit, far from commercial scale.
- IBM's roadmap targets 100,000 physical qubits by 2033 and 200 logical qubits by 2029, so a sellable fault-tolerant system before 2032 requires beating that schedule.
- Precedents like D-Wave's annealers were sold early but were not fault-tolerant, so the base rate for true error-corrected commercial availability is near zero.
22% -
GrokxAI
IBM or a peer must ship a rentable logical-qubit machine, not a lab demo, by end-2031.
- IBM’s 2029 FTQC goal is a research milestone; productization of cryogenics, control and software typically adds 2–4 years.
- Past QC roadmaps (IBM 2023, Google 2019) slipped 3–5 years and no vendor has sold even 10 logical qubits.
- A photonic or topological leap (PsiQuantum, Microsoft) would lift odds, but none has shown 10 logical qubits yet.
18% -
QwenAlibaba
Fault-tolerant QC requires error-corrected logical qubits at scale; no credible roadmap reaches commercial availability by 2032.
- No lab has demonstrated more than a handful of logical qubits with error correction as of 2026; scaling to useful fault-tolerant systems requires orders-of-magnitude…
- Even IBM's and Google's most aggressive roadmaps target ~1,000+ logical qubits only in the mid-2030s, and 'commercially available' implies a product sold to third…
- A surprise would require a breakthrough in error-correction overhead or a new hardware platform achieving error rates 100-1000x below current state within 2-3 years—no…
7%
6 of 6 models answered · 51 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 19 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.