A general-purpose quantum computer is made publicly available for direct consumer purchase before 2035.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 4% by 24 Sept 2036. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

4% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2036-09-24.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 2% — Extreme dilution refrigeration and optical trapping needs make personal consumer hardware economically and physically non-viable. Enterprise roadmaps from IBM and QuEra prioritize cloud API access, which satisfies consumer demand without desktop hardware. No technology exists to shrink sub-Kelvin cryogenics or massive vacuum chambers to a sub-$5,000 consumer form factor by 2035. Room-temperature diamond NV-center processors remain decades away from the gate fidelity required for general-purpose computing.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 6% — Turns on whether any vendor sells a standalone, plug-and-use quantum computer to ordinary consumers, not enterprises/cloud access. Current roadmaps (IBM, Google, IonQ, PsiQuantum) target fault-tolerant systems by early-to-mid 2030s but as data-center-scale cloud services, not consumer hardware. Cryogenics, error correction infrastructure and cost (multi-million dollar systems) make a truly consumer-purchasable device implausible by 2035. A surprise breakthrough in room-temperature qubits or dramatic miniaturization could change this, but no credible near-term signal points that way.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 7% — It turns on whether fault-tolerant quantum hardware can shrink from datacenter-scale systems into a safe appliance by 2035. Ordinary buyers would need a self-contained product, not cloud access or a lab-installed machine, requiring major advances in cooling, control, and error correction. No prior general-purpose quantum platform has crossed from specialized infrastructure to consumer retail; the 8-year window is short for that manufacturing transition. A credible announcement of room-temperature, fault-tolerant qubits with mass-manufacturable control hardware by 2030 would sharply raise the odds.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 4% — Consumer-sale universal QC needs room-temp, error-corrected hardware in 8 years. IBM/Google/IonQ must ship a standalone, fridge-free, million-qubit-class machine by end-2034, not cloud access. PCs took 30+ years lab-to-home; QC physics (decoherence, cryogenics) puts this far below that base rate. A compact photonic or topological prototype in 2028-30 would raise odds; none exists now.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 3% — No company has a credible path to a room-temperature, fault-tolerant machine ordinary consumers could buy and run. IBM, Google, and IonQ all sell cloud access, not hardware; their roadmaps target thousands of logical qubits by the 2030s, still cryogenic and rack-scale. A consumer product needs error correction at scale, millikelvin cooling, and a killer app; none of these clear before 2035 on any published timeline. Base rate for lab-only technologies reaching consumer retail within a decade is very low, and quantum computing sits below it due to physics constraints.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 3% — No credible roadmap places a consumer-purchasable general-purpose quantum computer before 2035. Every major roadmap (IBM, Google, IonQ, Quantinuum) targets cloud access through 2030s; none announce a standalone consumer device. Error-corrected logical qubits remain at single-digit counts as of 2026; fault-tolerant machines need millions of physical qubits, likely 2030s+. Even if hardware existed, cryogenic/vacuum infrastructure makes a 'direct consumer purchase' product implausible without a radical architectural breakthrough.

A general-purpose quantum computer is made publicly available for direct consumer purchase before 2035.

Apple releases a foldable iPhone before 2028.

Apple releases the iPhone 18 Pro before October 2026.

Apple announces the iPhone 18 before October 2026.

Apple cuts the official retail base price of the iPhone 17 before October 2026.