A new justice is confirmed to the US Supreme Court before January 2029.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 50% by 6 Oct 2029. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

50% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2029-10-06.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 42% — Turns on whether Thomas or Alito retire voluntarily while a Republican Senate and White House exist before 2029. Over a 2.25-year window, baseline actuarial or voluntary vacancy risk across nine justices sits near 30-35%. Thomas (78 in 2026) and Alito (76 in 2026) face intense conservative pressure to step down if GOP unified control exists. A divided Senate following the 2026 or 2028 elections would likely blockade any replacement, dampening retirement odds.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 58% — Hinges on whether an aging justice (Thomas, Alito, or Sotomayor) retires or dies during Trump's term by Jan 2029. Thomas (78) and Alito (76) are elderly with conservative incentive to retire under a GOP president and Senate before 2029. Historical base rate: SCOTUS vacancies occur roughly every 2-3 years on average, and this window spans over 3 years. Confirmation would be fast given GOP Senate control through at least 2027, so the bottleneck is purely a vacancy occurring, not confirmation speed.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 68% — The decisive variable is whether any current justice leaves during the next president’s first two years and the Senate can fill it. Historically, Supreme Court vacancies arise roughly every 1.5–2 years, making at least one opening over 27 months more likely than not. A death or retirement must occur by late 2028; nomination and Senate confirmation can take weeks to months if control is aligned. The biggest swing factor is retirement timing by the oldest justices—Thomas, Alito, and Sotomayor—rather than a procedural Senate barrier.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 62% — Thomas or Alito retiring under GOP control before 2029. Trump can nominate through Jan 2029; a GOP Senate would confirm quickly. Vacancy base rate is ~1 per 3 years, but ages 76-78 plus strategic timing raise it. A death among the four justices over 70, or Sotomayor health news, would shift odds most.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 22% — Turns on whether one of the two oldest justices leaves the bench in the next 27 months. Only Thomas (78) and Alito (76) are plausible exits; both have resisted retirement talk and control their own timing. A vacancy needs a resignation or death, then Senate confirmation, which has averaged ~70 days recently but can stall for months. Base rate for a SCOTUS seat opening in any 27-month window is roughly 1 in 4; this window sits slightly below that given the justices' stated intentions.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 22% — Turns on whether any of the nine justices dies or retires before January 2029 and whether the Senate confirms a replacement in time. Base rate: since 1990, roughly 1 vacancy per 2.5 years on average, but the current court has had no vacancy since Barrett in 2020, making a 2.25-year window below the… All nine justices are currently serving; the oldest (Thomas, 77; Alito, 75; Sotomayor, 71) face actuarial risk but none has signaled retirement, and the liberal justices… A development that would sharply raise this: a credible health report or a strategic retirement announcement from a justice in late 2026 or 2027.

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