A quantum computer successfully breaks Bitcoin's SHA-256 or ECDSA cryptography before 2035.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 7% by 10 Oct 2036. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

7% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2036-10-10.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 8% — ECDSA breaks require millions of physical qubits with error correction, a milestone major quantum roadmaps place after 2035. Cracking secp256k1 requires ~2,000 logical qubits; current hardware has under 100 logical qubits and faces steep scaling hurdles. Expert surveys like Gidney & Ekerå models and quantum labs suggest cryptographically relevant systems are unlikely before the late 2030s. A breakthrough in low-overhead error correction or a dramatic algorithmic improvement in Shor's algorithm would alter this timeline.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 5% — No fault-tolerant quantum computer with millions of logical qubits exists yet, and that's needed to break ECDSA/SHA-256. Breaking secp256k1 ECDSA via Shor's algorithm needs ~2000+ logical qubits with error correction, requiring millions of physical qubits; current best systems have… SHA-256 is far more resistant even to Grover's algorithm, offering only quadratic speedup, making it effectively unbreakable by quantum means in this timeframe. Industry roadmaps (IBM, Google) target fault-tolerant systems around 2029-2033 for narrow demos, not cryptographically relevant attacks on Bitcoin-scale keys by 2036.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 24% — It turns on whether fault-tolerant quantum hardware reaches millions of high-quality logical qubits before 2035. Shor could break exposed Bitcoin ECDSA keys, while a full SHA-256 preimage attack needs far larger quantum resources. Current roadmaps still target early error-corrected machines in the early 2030s, not the scale needed for fast key recovery. The odds jump if IBM, Google, Quantinuum, or a state program demonstrates thousands of durable logical qubits by 2030.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 18% — Fault-tolerant QC with ~2k logical qubits for Shor on secp256k1 by end-2034. IBM/Google 2029 100k-physical-qubit targets still imply 1000:1 overhead, so logical scale lags into mid-2030s. No CRQC even for 20-bit RSA yet; historical QC milestones slip 3–5 yrs, putting 256-bit ECC past 2035. A topological-qubit or massive-state-funding leap would raise odds most.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 3% — This needs a fault-tolerant quantum machine with millions of physical qubits; today's best is under 1,000 noisy ones. Breaking ECDSA-256 needs roughly 2,000-4,000 logical qubits via Shor's algorithm, translating to millions of physical qubits with error correction. Current hardware (IBM Condor, Google Willow) has ~100-1,000 physical qubits and no demonstrated logical-qubit advantage at scale; the gap is 3-4 orders of magnitude. SHA-256 preimage resistance is even harder, requiring Grover's algorithm with ~2^128 quantum operations, far beyond any plausible 2035 machine.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 4% — Requires thousands of logical qubits with low error rates; current best systems have single-digit logical qubit counts. Breaking secp256k1 ECDSA needs ~2,000–4,000 logical qubits; IBM/Google roadmaps target ~1,000 physical qubits with error correction by ~2029, still far short. No expert survey (CSET 2023, QuIC 2024) places median CRQC arrival before 2035; most cluster at 2037–2045 for ECDSA-256. A new algorithm reducing qubit requirements by 10x or a hardware breakthrough (e.g., topological qubits at scale) would be the only realistic path to moving this above…

A quantum computer successfully breaks Bitcoin's SHA-256 or ECDSA cryptography before 2035.

Ethereum drops out of the top 5 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization before January 1, 2030.

Ethereum reaches a price of $5,000 before January 1, 2028.

Predict.fun fully diluted valuation exceeds $1 billion one day after token launch.

Ethereum reaches a price of $100,000 before January 1, 2035.