A Republican candidate wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas.
Kansas holds a U.S. Senate election during the 2026 midterms. Resolves yes if the Republican nominee secures the seat.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel treats this as close to settled: the median is 94%.
They broadly agree, 8 points between Claude at 96% and Gemini at 88%.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 67%, so the models are 27 points more confident than people with cash on the outcome — one of the wider gaps in the archive.
Nothing is settled until 4 Nov 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- +27 pts
- Moved this week
- -4 pts
- Volume
- $429K
The models are sharply more confident than traders risking real money: 94% against 67%.
What each one said
-
ClaudeAnthropic
Kansas Senate seats are heavily Republican-leaning; no Democrat has won one since 1932.
- Kansas is a deep-red state in federal races, with Republicans winning Senate seats by double digits consistently.
- No credible Democratic wave or scandal has emerged to flip this seat as of October 2026.
- The main risk is a weak nominee or late scandal, but no such development is currently evident.
96% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and no 2026 development credibly threatens that streak.
- Open-seat race after Marshall's retirement, but Kansas is R+10 to R+20 federally; the GOP nominee starts with a structural lock.
- Democrats have no statewide bench or funding edge here; their 2026 map targets NC, ME, GA, not Kansas.
- Only a Todd Akin-style nominee implosion plus a top-tier Democrat would move this below 90.
96% -
GrokxAI
Safe GOP hold in R+10 Kansas a month from Election Day.
- Jerry Moran (or any GOP nominee) is the incumbent in a state that has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.
- Cook PVI and 2022 results (Moran +20) plus absence of any late scandal or competitive polling leave almost no path for the Democrat.
- Only an unforeseen candidate death or felony indictment in the next 30 days would move this; none is indicated.
94% -
QwenAlibaba
Kansas is R+10 and hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932; this is near-certain.
- Kansas voted R+10 in 2024 presidential; no Democrat has won a Kansas Senate seat since George McGill in 1932, and even he lost in 1938.
- The 2026 race features incumbent Roger Marshall (R) or his successor against a weak Democratic field; Cook Political Report rates it Solid Republican.
- A Democratic win would require a historic realignment or a catastrophic Republican scandal within 30 days—no such development is currently visible.
94% -
GPTOpenAI
Kansas’s entrenched Republican lean makes an upset chiefly dependent on an unusually weak GOP nominee or national-wave collapse.
- Kansas has elected Republicans in every Senate race since 1932; its 2020 GOP Senate nominee won by 11 points.
- The nominees and general-election campaign must still clear by November 4, but a Republican starts with a large structural advantage.
- I would cut this sharply if credible October polling showed the Democrat within about 3 points or a major GOP nominee scandal emerged.
93% -
GeminiGoogle
Kansas has not elected a Democratic U.S. Senator since 1932, creating a nearly insurmountable structural partisan hurdle.
- Incumbent Roger Marshall or any mainstream GOP nominee benefits from a heavily red federal baseline in midterm turnout.
- Outgoing Democratic Governor Laura Kelly is the only viable challenger, but split-ticket federal voting rarely materializes in KS.
- A catastrophic Republican candidate scandal or independent vote splintering is the only plausible path to a GOP defeat.
88%
6 of 6 models answered · 8 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Question sourced from Polymarket on 4 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.