A vacancy arises on the US Supreme Court before December 31, 2028.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 58% by 19 Sept 2029. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

58% — the median of 5 frontier models, resolving by 2029-09-19.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 44% — Turns on whether Thomas (80 in 2028) or Alito (78) chooses to retire while a like-minded Senate and President align. Historically a SCOTUS vacancy occurs roughly every two years, giving an actuarial baseline near 40% across a 27-month window. Strategic retirement requires a unified party in the White House and Senate, which hinges on the November 2028 election outcome. Sotomayor (74 by 2028) and Roberts (73) face health risks, but neither is likely to willingly step down without ideological alignment.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 42% — Turns on Thomas (77) or Alito (76) retiring strategically, or any justice's health failing within the window. Base rate: at least one SCOTUS vacancy occurs roughly every 2-3 years historically, and this window spans over 3 years. Thomas and Alito are elderly conservatives with strong incentive to retire under a GOP president/Senate before 2028 midterms risk control. Unexpected death or health crisis among any of the 9 justices (several are over 65) remains a persistent low-probability, high-impact factor.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 58% — This hinges on whether one of nine aging justices dies or retires during roughly 27 months before 2028 ends. A vacancy requires only a justice’s death, retirement, or departure; no Senate or presidential action is needed to create it. Historical turnover is frequent but uneven: the Court had vacancies in 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2023, yet none is guaranteed in a short window. The strongest upside driver is retirement by Thomas (78), Alito (76), or Roberts (71) before the 2028 election; continued health lowers it.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 62% — Whether any of four justices over 70 dies or retires in the next 27 months. Since 1990 vacancies average one every 2.7 years, so Poisson chance of at least one in 2.25 years is ~57%. Thomas (78) and Alito (76) lift mortality above that baseline; Sotomayor (72) adds further risk. A 2024 or 2028 GOP presidency is the swing that could trigger timed conservative retirements before 31 Dec 2028.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 62% — This turns on whether any of the six justices aged 68+ leaves a seat open in the next 27 months. Justices Thomas (78), Alito (76), Sotomayor (72), and Roberts (71) are the actuarial candidates; Kavanaugh and Barrett are too young to matter. The 2024-2028 window has already seen zero vacancies, so the base rate for a 27-month stretch with four justices past 70 is roughly 55-65%. A single health event or retirement announcement from Thomas or Alito would push this near certainty; a clean bill of health from all four would drop it below 40.

A vacancy arises on the US Supreme Court before December 31, 2028.

The US Supreme Court issues a merits decision regarding Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Haitian nationals before July 2028.

The U.S. Senate passes H.J. Res. 210 or H.J. Res. 213 under the Congressional Review Act to repeal maritime ship air-pollution limits.

The US Supreme Court rules on the constitutionality of the Illinois Protect Illinois Communities Act (PICA) before July 2027.

The US Supreme Court rules on the constitutionality of a state assault weapons ban before July 2027.