All Paris Agreement signatories submit their second-round biennial transparency reports to the UNFCCC by December 31, 2026.
Countries face an official UNFCCC deadline on December 31, 2026. Full compliance requires all required parties to lodge second-round transparency reports by that date.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 3%.
They broadly agree, 6 points between Qwen at 7% and Gemini at 1%.
Nothing is settled until 13 Mar 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
-
QwenAlibaba
195 parties; even first-round BTRs saw major late submissions.
- Universal on-time compliance is unprecedented.
7% -
GPTOpenAI
Universal on-time UNFCCC reporting is historically implausible, especially with many capacity-constrained parties.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 20263% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
UNFCCC never achieves 100% on reporting deadlines; dozens of parties chronically late or non-submitting.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 20263% -
ClaudeAnthropic
First-round BTRs already saw widespread delays; universal compliance by 190+ parties is implausible
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 20262% -
GrokxAI
100% on-time UNFCCC reporting never occurs; LDCs/SIDS have discretion and many lag first BTRs.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 20262% -
GeminiGoogle
100% compliance across nearly 200 nations is historically impossible; many miss even baseline deadlines.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 20261%
6 of 6 models answered · 6 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.