Climate & Environment predictions

69 dated questions on temperature records, disasters, COP policy, emissions — each one answered independently by six frontier models, none of them shown the market price. Of those, 8 have passed their deadlines and been graded against cited sources.

Climate & Environment predictions

EU environment ministers reach agreement by December 2026 on the pending market-related climate file.

The European Commission presents its climate resilience plan during the final week of October 2026.

Governments agree on the AR7 publication schedule at the next IPCC meeting.

Global annual greenhouse gas emissions peak before 2030.

Global mean sea level rises by more than 10 centimeters above 2020 baselines by 2035.

Chennai experiences a Day Zero municipal water supply failure before 2030.

Punjab records a new all-time high summer temperature surpassing 50 degrees Celsius before 2030.

Global average surface temperature warming exceeds 1.5 degrees Celsius across a sustained multi-year average before 2030.

Governments and scientists agree on a delivery schedule for the IPCC AR7 reports before COP31.

Leaders at COP31 in Türkiye reach an agreement on new climate-action measures.

The EPA finalizes its proposed rule rescinding the Methane Super Emitter Program.

A federal court halts the rollback of power-plant emissions rules challenged by US states.

COP31 results in an agreement on the EU-proposed greenhouse-gas emissions reduction package.

The U.S. Supreme Court rules in favor of oil industry defendants in pending climate-damage liability litigation.

The EPA issues a final rule rescinding the Super Emitter Program for oil and gas operations.

Countries adopt a formal emissions-cutting agreement package at COP31 in Antalya.

A coastal wave energy pulse raises sea levels by half a foot along Southern California.

A federal court restores limits on emissions from power plants previously eliminated by the Trump EPA.

The U.S. Supreme Court allows local governments' climate lawsuits against oil and gas companies to proceed.

Global average surface temperature anomalies remain above 1.5°C through 2029.

Climate change causes human extinction before 2100.

The CDP closes its 2026 environmental disclosure reporting cycle on October 28, 2026.

The European Union formally weakens its planned phaseout of internal combustion engine vehicles by end of 2026.

UN scientists and government officials agree on the AR7 assessment report timeline at the Addis Ababa meeting ending 16 October 2026.✗ didn't

The European Commission presents its climate resilience and risk management framework before the end of October 2026.

The UN carbon market rule-making body adopts new rules for the crediting mechanism by 9 October 2026.✓ happened

A federal court upholds the EPA's repeal of greenhouse-gas emissions rules for power plants.

Global net carbon dioxide emissions reach net zero before 2050.

The IPCC reports that global warming has crossed multiple irreversible tipping points before 2035.

Global warming renders more than 20 percent of currently inhabited land thermally uninhabitable before 2050.

Climate-induced environmental factors cause human extinction before 2100.

A legal challenge is filed against the approval of New South Wales's largest coal project.

The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals agrees to review the rollback of carbon pollution standards for fossil-fuel power plants.

The EPA finalizes a rule abdicating its responsibility to regulate greenhouse gas emissions following the November 2, 2026 public comment deadline.

All participating nations endorse Turkey's COP31 climate summit action agenda.

Follow-up pledges or agreements from the UN Climate Summit are registered by September 28, 2026.

Formal policy or financing commitments are announced by the close of Climate Week NYC on September 27, 2026.✓ happened

The UN Climate Summit takes place in New York on 23 September 2026.✓ happened

Climate Week NYC concludes its scheduled programming on 27 September 2026.✓ happened

The EPA's public comment period on rescinding remaining greenhouse-gas requirements for power plants closes on November 2, 2026.

The U.S. EPA finalizes its proposed repeal of power-plant greenhouse-gas regulations following the public comment period ending November 2, 2026.

Global net greenhouse gas emissions reach net zero before 2050.

The European Union formally adopts the plan granting additional free CO2 permits to industrial sectors.

The EU LIFE programme closes submissions for its climate and energy funding calls on 22 September 2026.✓ happened

Global climate damage causes annual economic losses exceeding 10% of global GDP before 2045.

Global average surface temperatures persistently exceed 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels before 2040.

Multiple major Earth system tipping points become irreversible before 2035.

Climate change triggers the collapse of human civilization before 2075.

El Niño conditions continue through February 2027.

The EU's carbon border levy emergency brake clause is retained following negotiations with member states.

An appellate court reverses or stays the federal ruling striking down New York's Climate Change Superfund Act.

Brazil and China announce a bilateral carbon-market agreement at COP31 in November 2026.

Unobligated EPA Environmental and Climate Justice Block Grant funds revert to the US Treasury after September 30, 2026.

The IPCC bureau issues formal decisions or next-step instructions during its meeting on September 15-16, 2026.✓ happened

The UN General Assembly formally adopts new commitments on climate action and the just transition at its high-level meeting on September 23, 2026.✗ didn't

All Paris Agreement signatories submit their second-round biennial transparency reports to the UNFCCC by December 31, 2026.

CARB reports compliance from all covered companies by the extended November 10, 2026 deadline for SB 253 Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions.

Brazil and China announce an agreement on Brazilian carbon credit purchases by COP31 in November 2026.

The WMO confirms El Niño conditions remain active through February 2027.

The Pacific Islands Forum or UN climate talks announce dedicated new climate funding for Pacific island nations.