An appellate court reverses or stays the federal ruling striking down New York's Climate Change Superfund Act.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 38% by 15 Sept 2027. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

38% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2027-09-15.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 58% — The Second Circuit routinely grants preliminary administrative stays in major statutory challenges to preserve state revenue programs during interlocutory review, often within two to four months of filing. Reversal base rates for district court constitutional invalidations of novel state cost-recovery or excise laws hover near 40%, but the broader condition here includes temporary stays, substantially improving the overall likelihood. The standard appellate timeline easily fits the 12-month window. An emergency motion for stay pending appeal by the New York Attorney General will be the decisive early test; an outright denial of interim relief by early 2027 would push odds well below 25%.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 30% — This requires the Second Circuit to actually reverse or stay a district court decision striking down New York's Superfund Act within roughly a year, after New York files an appeal, briefing completes, and the court rules or grants a stay motion. Appellate reversal rates on constitutional/preemption rulings vary widely, but federal courts have been broadly skeptical of state climate-liability statutes on Commerce Clause/preemption grounds, and similar novel climate laws (Vermont's) face parallel challenges with uncertain outcomes. A stay pending appeal is plausible if New York moves quickly and shows irreparable harm, which raises the odds somewhat above a bare merits-reversal probability. St…

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 72% — New York has strong incentives to seek an emergency stay and pursue the Second Circuit after a district-court invalidation of a flagship $75 billion statute; the state can notice an appeal promptly, while a final merits decision need not arrive for the condition to be met. Appellate stays are materially more common than outright reversals when a state shows disruption to a new regulatory program, though constitutional challenges to retroactive climate-liability schemes are serious. The key swing is whether the district court’s grounds rest on clear federal preemption or dormant-Commerce-Clause precedent, which would make a stay less likely.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 22% — The Second Circuit must act on the pending appeal of the SDNY judgment (likely Clean Air Act preemption plus dormant-commerce and due-process holdings) by mid-2027. Federal civil reversal rates sit near 10-15 percent; stays of constitutional invalidations are rarer still unless the panel sees a strong merits likelihood and irreparable harm to the state. One year is enough for briefing, argument, and a stay or merits order, but the district court’s reasoning tracks recent climate-liability dismissals, so the base rate is not exceeded. A contrary panel assignment or an intervening Supreme Court climate-preemption decision would be the main mover.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 38% — The losing party (New York) will appeal to the Second Circuit, and the key question is whether the court grants a stay pending appeal or reverses on the merits within the window. The Supreme Court's 2025 alignment of federal common law and the Clean Air Act's displacement of state climate claims (as in the BP and Sunoco cases) cuts strongly against New York, making reversal on the merits unlikely. A stay pending appeal is more plausible but requires the Second Circuit to find the appeal likely to succeed, which is a high bar given the federal preemption reasoning. The single development that would most change this is the Second Circuit signaling skepticism of the district court's preemption…

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 38% — The Second Circuit would need to act within 12 months. Federal appellate stays of district court injunctions are granted in roughly 25-35% of cases when the government appeals, but New York's statute faces novel constitutional questions (Due Process, Commerce Clause, vagueness) that make reversal on the merits harder. A stay pending appeal is more likely than full reversal in this window since the state would file an emergency motion and the circuit could grant it on a lower standard. The key variable is whether the Second Circuit views the statute as severable or facially invalid; a partial stay is possible but the resolution criteria require modifying the ruling, which a partial stay would…

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