◆ ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE 3 YEARS HORIZON RESOLVES 11 NOV 2029 · in 3.0y

Annex III high-risk AI obligations under Regulation (EU) 2026/1744 take effect on December 2, 2027.

EU Regulation 2026/1744 established deferred enforcement dates for high-risk AI systems, scheduling Annex III obligations for late 2027.

Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel leans yes: the median is 84%.

They broadly agree, 25 points between GPT at 97% and Grok at 72%.

Nothing is settled until 11 Nov 2029, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.

MODEL BY MODEL

What each one said

  • GPTOpenAI

    It hinges on whether EU lawmakers amend the AI Act’s transition timetable before the December 2027 application date.

    • The Regulation’s published staged-application schedule is the strongest evidence, and Annex III duties are expressly deferred to late 2027.
    • Changing that date would require a Commission proposal and Parliament-Council adoption before 2 December 2027, a high bar in roughly one year.
    • A formal omnibus simplification or implementation-delay package targeting high-risk AI rules would be the main reason to cut this sharply.
    openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 12 Nov 2026
    97%
  • DeepSeekDeepSeek

    The date is already fixed in the regulation's text; only a formal amendment before Dec 2027 could move it.

    • The Commission set the Annex III date in the adopted regulation, so no further legislative act is needed for it to take effect.
    • A postponement would require a new Commission proposal plus Parliament and Council approval, typically 12-24 months of process.
    • The EU has never amended AI Act timelines once set, though the 2025 digital omnibus showed appetite for delay; a formal proposal before mid-2027 is the key signal.
    deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 12 Nov 2026
    88%
  • GeminiGoogle

    The date holds unless the Council and Parliament adopt another amending regulation postponing compliance before late 2027.

    • Regulation 2026/1744 already fixed the revised timeline into hard law, making December 2, 2027 the binding statutory baseline.
    • Substantive delays to EU regulatory enforcement dates require a full co-decision legislative procedure, which rarely repeats twice.
    • A severe lack of harmonized standards or certified notified bodies by mid-2027 is the only plausible trigger for a further reprieve.
    google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 12 Nov 2026
    84%
  • QwenAlibaba

    Once an EU regulation sets a date, formal amendment to delay it is procedurally heavy and politically costly.

    • EU regulations take effect on their stated dates absent formal amendment; the AI Act's own timeline survived repeated industry delay campaigns through 2024-2025.
    • Delaying would require a new legislative act or delegated act amending 2026/1744's Article on application dates, which needs Commission initiative plus…
    • The main risk is harmonized standards (under Article 40 AI Act framework) not being ready, which could trigger a soft delay via guidance rather than a formal date…
    qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 12 Nov 2026
    84%
  • ClaudeAnthropic

    Hinges on whether the EU sticks to the codified Dec 2, 2027 date or grants another delay amid implementation pressure.

    • EU AI Act timelines have already been pushed back once via omnibus simplification, showing willingness to delay further if industry lobbies hard.
    • A date fixed in a binding regulation (2026/1744) is a stronger commitment than a mere roadmap, raising likelihood it holds absent new legislation.
    • Watch for Commission signals in 2027 on readiness of notified bodies and standards (harmonized standards under Art. 40) which could trigger another postponement.
    anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 12 Nov 2026
    78%
  • GrokxAI

    Whether 2026/1744 literally sets Annex III application for 2 Dec 2027 rather than another late-2027 day.

    • The regulation already exists and the given context confirms it deferred Annex III to late 2027, so only the precise calendar day remains open.
    • EU digital acts routinely use the 2nd of the month (AI Act 2024/1689 used 2 Aug); a later legislative shift would need to finish before end-2027.
    • A Commission or Council amendment moving the date after today would most change the forecast.
    x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 12 Nov 2026
    72%

6 of 6 models answered · 25 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.

WHAT DO YOU THINK?
loading…

Question sourced from a news sweep on 12 Nov 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.