Artificial Intelligence predictions

141 dated questions on frontier labs, benchmarks, agents, chips, regulation — each one answered independently by six frontier models, none of them shown the market price. Of those, 2 have passed their deadlines and been graded against cited sources.

Artificial Intelligence predictions

The EU AI Act compliance deadline for Annex III high-risk AI systems takes effect on 2 December 2027.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore's AI Risk Management Guidelines take effect on 7 October 2027.

The Article 50(2) transparency compliance deadline for pre-existing AI systems takes effect on 2 December 2026.

The European Commission closes its public consultation on draft implementing rules for EU AI Act enforcement on 9 November 2026.

OpenAI trains a frontier AI model using live internet data after its October 2026 policy change.

OpenAI releases GPT-6.1 Astra following its delayed October 2026 deployment.

The White House Super Intelligence Force submits its AI risks and opportunities report within 120 days of its 4 October 2026 creation.

Singapore financial institutions face mandatory compliance with monetary authority AI risk guidelines beginning 7 October 2027.

Poland's AI Act provisions scheduled for 28 October 2026 commence on that date.

Colorado adopts final AI rules under SB 26-189 and HB 26-1263 before January 1, 2027.

China's CAC adopts final rules restricting AI virtual companions and addictive AI services for minors.

Significant eurozone banks submit their AI cybersecurity action plans to the ECB by October 31, 2026.

The FTC brings formal enforcement action against OpenAI or Anthropic following its civil subpoenas.

China officially adopts final export controls on AI technologies and chips.

Anthropic completes an IPO by November 30, 2026.

A consensus-recognized Artificial General Intelligence system is created before 2028.

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is publicly demonstrated and broadly recognized by leading AI labs before 2030.

AI tools automate more than 50% of routine IT support and software maintenance jobs before 2030.

An artificial intelligence system takes autonomous operational control of critical civilian infrastructure or governance before 2035.

The US Congress passes the National AI Charter Act into law by the end of 2027.

The White House Super Intelligence Force submits its report on AI risks within 120 days of its 4 October 2026 announcement.

California establishes the AI registry and standards required under AB 1405 by 1 December 2027.

California publishes required oversight criteria under SB 813 by 1 May 2027.

The public comment period for Colorado's draft rules on automated decision systems closes by 26 October 2026.

Additional EU AI Act obligations take effect on 2 December 2026.

Japan enacts legislation protecting individual voice and likeness against unauthorized AI generation.

Singapore makes its AI autonomous agent testing guidance mandatory for commercial developers.

Ofcom issues an enforcement action or formal infringement finding against X regarding the Grok chatbot.

The EU formally abandons or replaces its shelved AI Liability Directive.

Australia announces permanent parliamentary oversight or new statutory safeguards for AI.

The UK enacts dedicated legislation granting statutory powers to the AI Security Institute.

A federal court strikes down provisions of California's newly enacted AI legislation.

The Australian Parliament passes legislation regulating major AI companies following parliamentary committee inquiries.

The FTC issues a formal complaint or enforcement action against OpenAI or Anthropic stemming from its safety and antitrust inquiries.

The White House formally appoints Jay Clayton as head of federal AI policy and leader of a new AI task force.

The New York City Council enacts its proposed AI safety legislative package following committee hearings.

China's finalized State Council regulation bars minors from using virtual companions.

China's Cyberspace Administration finalizes mandatory security steps in its Agent System Development Security Guide.

Anthropic's policy prohibiting abusive behavior directed at Claude takes effect on November 12, 2026.

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is publicly demonstrated before 2030.

A scientific consensus concludes that an artificial intelligence system has achieved self-awareness before 2035.

An artificial intelligence system autonomously controls key global economic or military infrastructure before 2035.

The product-linked rules of the EU AI Act enter into application on 2 August 2028.

California's SB 947 (No Robo Bosses Act) is enjoined or invalidated by a court prior to July 1, 2027.

Legislation defining 'Super Intelligence' is submitted to the U.S. Congress within 60 days of the executive order.

The U.S. Senate passes or advances the AI Agent Accountability Act out of committee.

Deferred Annex III rules under the EU AI Act begin enforcement on 2 December 2027 as currently scheduled.

Colorado adopts final rules on Automated Decision-Making Technology and Chatbot Safety following its October 26, 2026 comment deadline.

Google resumes its Open Source Software Vulnerability Rewards Program with updated rules filtering AI-generated reports.

The FTC initiates an enforcement action against OpenAI or Anthropic arising from its September 2026 safety scrutiny.

The Trump administration submits draft legislation legally defining 'Super Intelligence' by late November 2026.

OpenAI announces a bankruptcy filing by December 31, 2027.

The European Central Bank takes public supervisory enforcement action against banks missing the October 31, 2026 AI cyber-threat plan deadline.

Colorado adopts final rules on ADMT and chatbot safety following the October 26, 2026 comment deadline.

The FTC announces a formal enforcement action against OpenAI or Anthropic arising from its October 2026 safety probe.

Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic publicly launch an industry-run AI safety standards body by the end of 2026.

Italy publishes delegated decrees aligning national law with the EU AI Act by October 10, 2026.✓ happened

The White House formally announces Jay Clayton as the new AI czar on October 3, 2026.✓ happened

Anthropic announces a bankruptcy filing by December 31, 2027.

Anthropic achieves the highest first-day closing market capitalization among 2026 IPOs.