Apple ends major iOS update support for the iPhone 13 before the end of 2027.
Apple typically supports iPhones with major iOS versions for 5 to 7 years from launch. This resolves positively if the iPhone 13 does not receive the major iOS version released in late 2027.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel thinks this is unlikely: the median is 25%.
They do not agree: Gemini puts it at 37% and Qwen at 3%, 34 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 25 Sept 2029, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
-
GeminiGoogle
Apple usually gives flagship iPhones six or seven major updates, making an iOS 21 cut in 2027 less likely than a 2028 sunset.
- The iPhone 13 launched in 2021 with iOS 15, so receiving iOS 21 in autumn 2027 would mark its sixth major post-launch upgrade cycle.
- Precedents like the iPhone 6s and XR received 6 major updates; only devices with RAM constraints like the iPhone 7 stopped at 5.
- With 4GB RAM and the capable A15 chip, the iPhone 13 is well-positioned to survive until iOS 22 in 2028 unless AI needs cut it early.
37% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Turns on whether Apple's support window lands at 6 vs 7 years from iPhone 13's Sept 2021 launch.
- iPhone 13 launched Sept 2021; recent Apple support runs (iPhone 6s, X, 8) have stretched to 7-8 years, suggesting support into 2028+
- iOS 26 (fall 2026) already still supports iPhone 13-era chips per Apple's pattern, making a cutoff by fall 2027 (only 6 years) less likely
- Apple has been extending support lengths over time, so betting on an early cutoff before 2028 goes against the recent trend
32% -
GrokxAI
Whether A15 iPhone 13 is cut from iOS 21 (Sep 2027) after only five major versions.
- Apple must ship iOS 21 without 13; cutoff decided ~WWDC 2027 after chip/RAM tests.
- Recent A-series phones (XS 6 yrs, 11/12 still going) beat the old 5-yr median; 13 sits above that bar.
- A surprise A15 thermal or RAM limit at iOS 20 betas would flip it to drop.
28% -
GPTOpenAI
The key is whether Apple treats the 2021 A15 generation as a six-year or seven-year major-iOS cohort.
- Apple must omit every iPhone 13 model from the iOS release announced around June and shipped around September 2027.
- Recent precedents span six major years for iPhone 6s/7-era devices and longer for newer chips; five is uncommon.
- A reported iOS 19–21 compatibility cutoff excluding A15-class devices would sharply raise this estimate.
22% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
This turns on whether iOS 28 (fall 2027) drops the iPhone 13, which launched September 2021.
- Apple's recent floor is 6-7 years: iPhone 6s (2015) got iOS 15 (2021), iPhone 8 (2017) got iOS 16 (2022), so 2021 hardware reaching 2027 is plausible.
- The iPhone 13 runs the A15, which also powers the iPhone SE 3 (2022) and iPhone 14, so Apple can keep the chip supported cheaply through iOS 28.
- A shift to a shorter 5-year cycle, or dropping A15 alongside the iPhone 11/12 in iOS 27 (2026), would be the signal that flips this.
12% -
QwenAlibaba
Apple has never dropped a phone after only 6 years; the iPhone 13 launched Sept 2021, so iOS 21 in fall 2027 would be year 6.
- Apple's shortest modern support window is 6 years (iPhone 6s got iOS 15, iPhone SE 1st gen got iOS 15); the iPhone 13 would be in year 6 at iOS 21's fall 2027 release…
- The A15 Bionic chip and 4GB RAM match or exceed specs of devices that received 7 years of updates; no hardware constraint forces an early cut.
- A shift to 5-year support would require Apple to break a decade-long pattern with no announced rationale; the only scenario that moves this above 10% is a dramatic new…
3%
6 of 6 models answered · 34 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 26 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.