Apple releases an iPhone 18 Plus model by December 31, 2026.
Apple's lineup naming and tiers evolve regularly. This resolves positively if Apple officially launches or announces an iPhone model branded as 'iPhone 18 Plus' by the end of 2026.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 10%.
They broadly agree, 18 points between GPT at 22% and Claude at 4%.
Nothing is settled until 10 Jan 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
-
GPTOpenAI
It hinges on whether Apple keeps the “Plus” name rather than replacing it with Air or another tier in 2026.
- Apple must unveil the branded device, most likely in its September 2026 iPhone event, leaving one normal launch window.
- The Plus tier appeared for iPhone 14–16, but reported 2025 lineup changes toward iPhone Air make continuation below base rate.
- A credible supply-chain leak or Apple invitation naming an iPhone 18 Plus before September would sharply raise the odds.
22% -
GrokxAI
Sept 2026 event already passed without an 18 Plus, and Apple never adds a mid-cycle Plus.
- Apple’s iPhone event is locked to early September; by 12 Oct the 18 lineup is public or the delay would itself be historic.
- Plus existed for 14-16 but 2025 reporting and 17 rumors replaced it with Air; that tier change, once made, sticks.
- No precedent exists for a Q4 name-only Plus launch after the main event.
18% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Apple killed the Plus tier with the iPhone 17 Air in 2025, so a Plus-branded 18 model would reverse a deliberate lineup decision.
- Apple replaced the iPhone 16 Plus with the iPhone 17 Air in September 2025, signaling the Plus slot was retired rather than renamed.
- The iPhone 18 family is expected at the September 2026 event, so any Plus branding would already need to be locked into supply-chain orders now.
- Base rate for Apple resurrecting a just-retired tier within one cycle is near zero; the 2020 mini lasted two years before being cut, not revived.
12% -
QwenAlibaba
Apple almost certainly retired the 'Plus' branding with iPhone 16 Plus, replacing it with 'Air' starting iPhone 17.
- Widely reported by Gurman, Kuo, and others that iPhone 17 (Sept 2025) replaced Plus with an ultra-thin 'Air' model, a structural lineup change.
- Since today is Oct 2026, iPhone 18 already launched in Sept 2026; if no Plus appeared in the 17 series, it's near-certain absent in 18.
- Only scenario that changes this: Apple reversed course and reintroduced Plus alongside Air, which no credible leaker has suggested.
7% -
GeminiGoogle
Apple has structurally retired the Plus form factor in favor of the ultra-thin 'Air' design starting with the 17 generation.
- Supply-chain leaks consistently show Apple replacing the weak-selling Plus tier with an iPhone Air/Slim beginning in late 2025.
- Once Apple deprecates a non-selling tier (like the 12/13 Mini), it virtually never revives the exact branding two cycles later.
- The 2026 iPhone 18 lineup would only include a Plus if the ultra-thin redesign completely flopped in late 2025 pilot manufacturing.
6% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Apple is widely reported to be dropping the 'Plus' tier entirely from iPhone 17 onward.
- iPhone 17 lineup (Sept 2025) reportedly replaced Plus with a new 'Air' model, signaling Plus discontinuation.
- iPhone 18 series is expected around Sept 2026, likely following the Pro/Pro Max/Air structure without Plus.
- Reversing a tier naming strategy within one generation would be unusual and no credible leaks suggest a Plus revival.
4%
6 of 6 models answered · 18 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 12 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.