Astronauts complete the scheduled ISS spacewalk to install the eighth roll-out solar array on November 5, 2026

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 70% by 11 Nov 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

70% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-11-11.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 88% — The walk goes ahead on schedule unless an eleventh-hour spacesuit glitch or medical delay forces a postponement. One day out from the timeline, preparation milestones are complete and the iROSA installation is a mature, well-drilled task. US spacewalk scrub rates sit near 10-15%, historically driven by suit telemetry warnings, minor medical issues, or ISS maneuvers. Any suit leak during pre-breathe would slip the task past the window, but six days of margin before resolution cushions short delays.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 65% — Hinges on whether the Nov 5 EVA proceeds on schedule and completes the final array install without anomaly. NASA spacewalks are frequently delayed or scrubbed for technical, suit, or weather reasons even with firm schedules a day out. Historically most scheduled ISS EVAs for solar array work eventually succeed, but exact-date completion often slips by days. A suit malfunction, depress issue, or unexpected hardware problem during the walk would push completion past Nov 5 or even past Nov 11.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 63% — The outcome hinges on whether ISS, suit, robotic-arm, and orbital-debris constraints remain go for the Nov. 5 EVA. Menon, Kutryk, Mission Control, Canadarm2 operators, and ground teams must clear final readiness before the Nov. 5 launch window. ISS EVAs commonly slip for suit, hardware, weather-at-launch-site, or debris issues, leaving only six days for a reschedule. A completed prior day-of execution and no late debris conjunction would materially raise the odds; an EVA abort would likely defeat the deadline.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 78% — NASA greenlights and finishes the Nov 5 EVA without abort or failed iROSA deploy. Crew and hardware are already on station; only a last-day suit, airlock or weather abort would stop it. iROSA installs have succeeded on prior EVAs once started; incomplete deploy is rare. Day-before ISS EVA delay rate is ~20% historically, so this sits slightly below that given no public hold yet.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 62% — Whether the Nov 5 EVA launches on time and the iROSA hardware actually mates and deploys without a scrub. NASA has flown 7 of 8 iROSA arrays successfully since 2021, so the hardware and procedures are well-proven, not experimental. The main risk is a late scrub for weather, a suit/leak issue, or a station attitude problem, which historically pushes EVAs days-to-weeks, past the Nov 11 deadline. Menon and Kutryk are both first-time spacewalkers, adding some procedural risk, but the task is a repeat of prior installs.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 74% — Tomorrow's EVA likely proceeds, but last-minute scrubs and the strict date phrasing create meaningful downside. ISS EVAs scrub or slip ~15-20% of the time due to suit checks, crew medical holds, or station scheduling conflicts. The 6-day resolution window (Nov 5–11) absorbs a short delay, but the statement's 'on November 5' phrasing may require exact-date completion. ROSA installations (6 of 8 already done) have had no installation failures, so the hardware side is low-risk; a suit or crew issue is the main threat.

Astronauts complete the scheduled ISS spacewalk to install the eighth roll-out solar array on November 5, 2026.

What each one said

Astronauts complete the scheduled ISS spacewalk to install the eighth roll-out solar array on November 5, 2026.

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