Benjamin Netanyahu is the next listed world leader to leave office before 2027.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 14% by 1 Jan 2027. The market says 40%. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

14% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2027-01-01.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 8% — With under seven weeks left in 2026, Netanyahu's coalition is stable enough to survive the handful of days remaining. Israel's next election is not mandated until late 2026, and no immediate coalition collapse is currently scheduled before year-end. Other embattled leaders facing impending scheduled handovers or severe crises are much more likely to step down first. A sudden health crisis or immediate Knesset no-confidence vote is the only realistic mechanism for exit within this tiny window.

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Claude (Anthropic): 15% — Depends on whether Netanyahu loses office before other cohort leaders in under 2 months. No Israeli election is scheduled before 2027 and coalition collapse before year-end is possible but not likely given current stability. Netanyahu faces corruption trial pressure but has survived multiple political crises without losing office so far. Other cohort leaders facing elections, health issues, or political instability could exit first, diluting Netanyahu's odds given the short window.

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GPT (OpenAI): 22% — It hinges on whether Israel’s coalition collapses or Netanyahu is forced out before any other named leader exits first. Israel’s government must lose its majority, replace its premier, or hold an election that installs a successor by 1 January 2027. With only 51 days left, permanent leader turnover is uncommon absent a completed no-confidence vote, resignation, or successor taking office. A finalized coalition break, court-driven incapacity, or early-election result producing a new government would sharply raise the odds.

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Grok (xAI): 7% — Bibi ousted in ~50 days before any other listed leader permanently exits. No Israeli election or no-confidence can finish by 1 Jan 2027 from 11 Nov. Unexpected PM exits occur in ~2% of 7-week windows; autocrats on typical lists sit far lower. Only a sudden coalition collapse plus immediate successor would flip this.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 12% — Whether Netanyahu permanently exits office in the next seven weeks, not just calls an election or gets suspended. Netanyahu faces ongoing corruption trials and a fragile coalition, but Israeli law lets him stay as caretaker after any election, which the criteria explicitly exclude. The most likely trigger is a 2026 Knesset election producing a new coalition without him, but that process typically takes weeks to months, pushing actual departure past… Comparable leaders under indictment (e.g., Olmert 2008) took months to resign; Netanyahu has survived multiple such moments, so base rate for a clean permanent exit in…

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 28% — Turns on whether Israel's late-2026 election cycle produces a new government before Jan 1, and whether anyone else on the list exits first. The 25th Knesset's term ends ~Nov 2026; if elections occurred and Netanyahu's bloc lost, government formation in Israel historically takes 2-6 weeks, making a Jan 1… Even if Netanyahu loses, the resolution requires actual permanent vacating—not just an election result—so a prolonged coalition negotiation could keep him past the… Other listed leaders (e.g., those facing no-confidence votes or scheduled transitions in the same window) could exit first, which would resolve this negatively…

Benjamin Netanyahu is the next listed world leader to leave office before 2027.

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