Geopolitics predictions

109 dated questions on elections, wars, ceasefires, alliances, sanctions — each one answered independently by six frontier models, none of them shown the market price. Of those, 8 have passed their deadlines and been graded against cited sources.

Geopolitics predictions

The US publicly announces the end of its naval blockade of Iran by November 30, 2026.

Puma Shen is elected Mayor of Taipei in the November 2026 municipal election.

Chiang Wan-an wins the 2026 Taipei mayoral election.

Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel by the end of 2026.

A trilateral summit between Trump, Xi, and Putin is held in November 2026.

Officials from Russia and Ukraine hold an official meeting in November 2026.

A new Israeli government is sworn in with a governing coalition majority following the election.

David Lisnard wins the next French presidential election.

No listed national leader ceases to permanently occupy their office before 2027.

Houthi forces reopen humanitarian access routes into Taiz, Yemen.

Direct talks in Switzerland between the US and Iran produce an announced ceasefire or agreement.

US-mediated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine resume in November 2026.

Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026.

Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, and Somalia sign a binding multilateral agreement with Ethiopia regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is formally restricted or halted by Iranian forces.

Ukraine and Russia formally confirm an energy ceasefire agreement based on the U.S. proposal.

Flávio Bolsonaro wins the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12 percentage points.

A Hormuz agreement is announced by November 2, 2026, and the Democratic Party wins the US Senate in the 2026 midterm elections.

Russia and Ukraine reach an agreement to limit strikes on grain and energy infrastructure before winter 2026.

Russia and Ukraine hold direct diplomatic peace talks by November 30, 2026.

Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attends a formal US-Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026.

Flávio Bolsonaro wins the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by a margin of 8% to 12%.

A sustained halt in hostilities and Israeli airstrikes in Gaza is observed following reported ceasefire talks.

Negotiators announce an agreed ceasefire or peace framework between Russia and Ukraine resulting from the Miami talks.

Aleksandar Vucic becomes the next Prime Minister of Serbia.

Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027.

Ukraine recaptures territory in Crimea by December 31, 2026.

Iran formally accepts the US response regarding the plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Ukraine and Russia agree to a formal ceasefire.

At least one nuclear weapon is detonated in an act of war before 2030.

A direct military conflict between two or more nuclear-armed superpowers breaks out before 2030.

The ceasefire between the United States and Iran holds through November 3, 2026.

South Korea recalls its ambassador to Ukraine over the disclosure of North Korean prisoners of war.

The existing ceasefire in the Gaza conflict collapses.

The United States and Iran reach a formal negotiated settlement.

The Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia electoral list wins the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election.

The 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait drops to 10 or fewer by October 31, 2026.

Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain by December 31, 2026.

Ethiopia and Eritrea restore formal diplomatic relations by October 5, 2027.

Houthi forces enter Taiz City by December 31, 2026.

Ukraine and Russia reach an agreement establishing a shipping corridor or ceasefire for Black Sea grain exports.

The United Nations agrees on and appoints a successor to Secretary-General António Guterres before December 31, 2026.

The United States officially announces the end or suspension of its naval blockade of Iran by October 15, 2026.

Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire, prisoner exchange, or limited truce before December 31, 2026.

The United Kingdom declares war or invokes NATO Article 5 in response to an attack on its homeland before 2030.

Australia's sovereign territory comes under sustained military attack in a major conflict before 2035.

A direct military conflict between the United States and Russia or China occurs before 2028.

Renan Santos finishes in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✗ didn't

A candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✗ didn't

Flávio Bolsonaro finishes in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✗ didn't

Flávio Bolsonaro wins the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✓ happened

The United States and Iran announce a resumption of formal negotiations or an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz within seven days.✗ didn't

The United States and Iran reach a final written nuclear deal by December 31, 2026.

The United States and Iran sign or adopt a final nuclear agreement by October 31, 2026.

Magdalena Andersson is appointed the next Prime Minister of Sweden.

The United States provides an official formal response to Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz proposal.

The United States and China reach an agreement on rare-earth export restrictions during the Trump-Xi meeting this week.✗ didn't

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✓ happened

Official peace talks between Ukraine and Russia begin before winter 2026.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas addresses the UN General Assembly by video during the high-level debate.✓ happened