Bitcoin completes its fifth block reward halving before May 2028.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 97% by 4 Oct 2029. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

97% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2029-10-04.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 88% — Hashrate growth consistently compresses block generation times below the nominal 10-minute target between difficulty adjustments. The fourth halving hit on April 20, 2024, leaving four full years plus ten days to mine 210,000 blocks before May 1, 2028. Historical cycles average 9.5 to 9.8 minutes per block due to secular hashrate expansion, reliably beating the 10.0-minute baseline. Only a prolonged, catastrophic global ASIC shutdown or dramatic hashrate contraction sustained over years would push the date past May.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 92% — Hinges on average block time staying near 10 minutes through block 1,050,000. The fourth halving occurred April 2024 at block 840,000, and 210,000 blocks at ~10 min/block implies the fifth halving around April 2028. Historical block times have run slightly faster than 10 minutes on average due to rising hashrate, pushing estimates toward March-April 2028, before the May 2028… Main risk is if block production has slowed meaningfully due to difficulty adjustments or mining disruption, which would push the date past May 2028, but this is a…

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 99% — It turns almost entirely on block production staying near Bitcoin’s long-run 10-minute target through 2028. The fourth halving occurred at block 840,000 in April 2024; 210,000 more blocks at 10 minutes implies roughly April 2028. Reaching May 1 requires the post-2024 average interval to exceed about 10.1 minutes, while difficulty retargets every 2,016 blocks. A sustained hash-rate collapse, major protocol disruption, or prolonged chain halt before April 2028 would be the main reason to revise down.

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Grok (xAI): 97% — Fifth halving lands ~April 2028 given 10-min blocks and rising hashrate. 840k (Apr 2024) + 210k blocks at ~10 min yields ~Apr 2028; Oct 2026 height ~969k leaves ~81k blocks (~560 days). Hashrate growth has made prior halvings 1–3 weeks early; Poisson variance over 81k blocks is only ~2 days. Only a sustained multi-month hashrate collapse (no precedent) would push past 1 May 2028.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 97% — Bitcoin's fifth halving at block 1,050,000 is already past or imminent; only a catastrophic chain halt could stop it. The fourth halving hit block 840,000 on April 20, 2024; at ~10-minute blocks, block 1,050,000 lands around early 2028, comfortably before May 1. Miners have produced every block on schedule for 16 years; the only failure mode is a multi-year network halt, which has never happened. The one development that would change my mind is a consensus-level emergency freeze or a sustained hashrate collapse lasting months.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 97% — Block 1,050,000 is ~1.5 years away at current hashrate; only a sustained hashrate collapse could delay it past May 2028. The fourth halving (block 840,000) occurred April 2024; at ~144 blocks/day, 210,000 blocks takes ~1,458 days, landing ~April 2028. Current hashrate is well above the level needed to maintain 10-min block times, and difficulty adjusts every 2,016 blocks to correct drift. A delay past May 2028 would require average block times to stretch beyond ~10.2 minutes for 18+ months—no precedent exists for such a sustained slowdown.

Bitcoin completes its fifth block reward halving before May 2028.

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The final Bitcoin block subsidy is mined before the year 2140.

Bitcoin does not set a new 52-week low before the end of 2026.