Brazil and China announce a bilateral carbon market accord by COP31 in November 2026.
Brazil is exploring sales of carbon credits to China and targeting an accord at COP31 in Turkey. An official joint announcement by the end of the summit is required.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel thinks this is unlikely: the median is 30%.
They do not agree: Gemini puts it at 42% and Qwen at 11%, 31 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 13 Dec 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
-
GeminiGoogle
Bilateral carbon credit links face complex Article 6 regulatory friction that often delays formal accords.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202642% -
GPTOpenAI
Exploratory talks and a stated COP31 target help, but cross-border market rules and politics often delay formal accords.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202641% -
GrokxAI
Targeted COP deals often slip on technical Article 6 details despite political will.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202638% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Talks exist but formal bilateral carbon market accords rarely materialize by fixed summit deadlines
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202622% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Talks exploratory; Brazil-China carbon credit deals face MRV/Article 6 hurdles and no draft text reported.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202622% -
QwenAlibaba
Exploratory talks exist but formal bilateral carbon market accords rarely materialize within ~14 months of initial discussion.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202611%
6 of 6 models answered · 31 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.