Brazil and China announce a bilateral carbon-market agreement at COP31 in November 2026.
Brazil is advancing carbon-market talks with China ahead of COP31. An official joint announcement of a bilateral carbon pact at the summit confirms the outcome.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel thinks this is unlikely: the median is 33%.
They do not agree: Gemini puts it at 44% and Claude at 10%, 34 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 13 Dec 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GeminiGoogle
High political alignment supports bilateral deals, but technical carbon accounting rules often delay pacts.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202644% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Brazil hosting COP31 and already in bilateral carbon talks with China; joint pact plausible but not yet agreed.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202642% -
GPTOpenAI
Talks are active, but formal bilateral pacts often slip amid scope, integrity, and sovereignty issues.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202637% -
GrokxAI
Bilateral carbon pacts rare; talks advancing but COP timing not guaranteed.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202628% -
QwenAlibaba
Talks exist but bilateral carbon-market pacts rarely materialize at COPs; Brazil-China cooperation more likely on broader climate finance.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202618% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Talks exist but formal bilateral carbon-market pacts at COPs are rare and slow to finalize
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202610%
6 of 6 models answered · 34 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.