Brazil and China announce an agreement on Brazilian carbon credit purchases by COP31 in November 2026.
Brazilian officials are visiting Beijing to negotiate bilateral carbon market cooperation, aiming for a formal announcement by the COP31 summit in November 2026.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel is barely on the yes side: the median is 58%.
They do not agree: Gemini puts it at 74% and Claude at 37%, 37 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 13 Dec 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GeminiGoogle
Strong bilateral climate ties and mutual incentives under Article 6 make an agreement before COP31 very likely.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202674% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Active bilateral talks already underway; 14 months to COP31 gives ample runway for a formal MoU.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202662% -
GrokxAI
Talks underway with COP31 target, but carbon-credit terms often stall on MRV/price; 2 months is tight.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202658% -
GPTOpenAI
Active talks and a clear summit deadline help, but cross-border carbon-credit rules and pricing remain hard.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202657% -
QwenAlibaba
COP31 host Brazil has strong incentive; but bilateral carbon deals are complex and often slip past summit deadlines.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202641% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Active bilateral talks with COP31 target date, but formal carbon credit deals often slip or stay vague
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202637%
6 of 6 models answered · 37 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.