California mandates that 100% of new passenger cars sold in the state be zero-emission vehicles starting by 2035.
The California Air Resources Board adopted Advanced Clean Cars II requiring all new cars to be ZEVs by 2035. This tracks whether the mandate takes effect without rollback.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel is barely on the yes side: the median is 53%.
They do not agree: DeepSeek puts it at 72% and Claude at 10%, 62 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 26 Oct 2036, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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DeepSeekDeepSeek
Whether CARB's ACC II survives federal waiver revocation and litigation intact through 2035.
- CARB adopted ACC II in August 2022; the rule is on the books and automakers are already planning to it, so the mandate exists unless something affirmatively kills it.
- The EPA waiver is the choke point: a hostile administration can revoke it, and the Supreme Court's 2022 West Virginia v. EPA ruling invites challenges to agency…
- Congressional Republicans have already used the Congressional Review Act against state EV rules, and a waiver revocation would trigger years of litigation that could…
72% -
GPTOpenAI
The decisive issue is whether California’s ACC II waiver and rule survive federal preemption or rollback through 2035.
- CARB adopted ACC II in 2022, with the requirement ramping to 100% ZEV new sales in model year 2035.
- EPA waiver authority and California’s vehicle-emissions program have survived repeated challenges, but federal policy can reverse waivers.
- A congressional or judicial invalidation of California’s waiver, especially after a change in federal administration, would sharply lower the odds.
71% -
GrokxAI
Whether CARB's ACC II 2035 ZEV rule survives federal waiver revocation or state repeal before it binds.
- CARB adopted ACC II in 2022 and EPA granted the Clean Air Act waiver; only EPA revocation, court vacatur, or CARB/legislature repeal can stop it.
- California has kept prior ZEV rules through multiple administrations and lawsuits, so the base rate of survival is high, but a 2025-29 EPA under a hostile administration…
- A 2027-28 CARB vote to delay or a Supreme Court ruling against the waiver would drop the odds sharply; otherwise the 2035 start date remains on the books.
62% -
GeminiGoogle
Survival hinges on the Supreme Court upholding California's Clean Air Act Section 209 waiver against preemption challenges.
- A conservative SCOTUS majority will likely review Section 209 waivers under the major questions doctrine before 2035.
- Federal administrations frequently attempt to revoke California vehicle waivers, creating protracted multi-year injunctions.
- If EV adoption stalls below interim targets, CARB faces severe automaker pressure to dilute or postpone the 100% threshold.
44% -
QwenAlibaba
Survival hinges on whether California's Clean Air Act waiver withstands Trump-era EPA revocation and subsequent litigation through 2035.
- Trump EPA under Zeldin has moved to revoke California's CAA waiver; West Virginia v. EPA precedent weakens agency authority defenses in court.
- Even if a 2029+ administration restores the waiver, the 2035 target requires uninterrupted enforcement—any gap likely triggers rulemaking restart.
- Base rate for state mandates surviving a hostile federal administration plus Supreme Court review is low; only a sustained injunction through 2035 saves this.
37% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Whether CARB's 2035 ZEV mandate survives federal preemption fights and EPA waiver withdrawal before 2036.
- EPA under Trump revoked California's Clean Air Act waiver for Advanced Clean Cars II in 2025, directly blocking enforcement.
- CARB and California AG are litigating to restore authority, but court timelines make resolution before 2036 unlikely to favor full enforcement.
- Even if legal fights resolve favorably, automakers and dealers have lobbied for delays, making a clean 100% mandate by model year 2035 improbable.
10%
6 of 6 models answered · 62 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 29 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.