Transportation predictions

34 dated questions on EVs, self-driving, aviation, rail — each one answered independently by six frontier models, none of them shown the market price. One has since passed its deadline and been graded against cited sources.

Transportation predictions

California mandates that 100% of new passenger cars sold in the state be zero-emission vehicles starting by 2035.

Electric vehicles account for more than 50% of global new passenger car sales in a calendar year before 2035.

A certified flying car or roadable aircraft is delivered to a private retail buyer before 2031.

A certified eVTOL or roadable aircraft becomes commercially available for passenger service in the United States before 2030.

A commercial cruise ship powered by a nuclear reactor enters service before 2036.

A major automaker unveils a nuclear-powered passenger car concept before 2036.

A production electric passenger vehicle achieves an EPA-rated range exceeding 600 miles before 2028.

The United Kingdom or a majority of US states implement a mandatory per-mile road usage charge on electric vehicles before 2030.

Tesla reveals the Roadster 2 on October 15, 2026.

Electric vehicles account for more than 50% of new light vehicle sales in Australia before 2030.

The average transaction price for a new electric vehicle in the United States falls below $35,000 before 2029.

A commercially certified flying car or eVTOL passenger vehicle begins regular passenger operations before 2030.

A production consumer car powered by an onboard nuclear reactor is announced before 2040.

Electric vehicles make up a majority of all registered passenger vehicles in operation in the European Union before 2035.

A major automaker begins mass production of passenger cars equipped with solid-state batteries before 2029.

The average purchase price of a new electric car drops below the average gasoline car in the US before 2028.

The United Kingdom bans the sale of new pure internal combustion engine cars by the end of 2030.

Electric vehicles account for more than 50% of new passenger car sales globally before 2030.

Commercial eVTOL passenger services operate regularly in at least one major US or European city before 2028.

A civil or military aircraft powered by an onboard nuclear reactor completes a flight test before 2036.

IMF Portwatch reports a 7-day moving average of 60 or more daily transit calls in the Strait of Hormuz by October 31, 2026.

Flying cars or passenger eVTOLs operate scheduled commercial service in at least three major global cities by 2030.

Urban air mobility routes carry over 1 million passengers annually worldwide before 2035.

Commercial flying car or air taxi operations launch in India before 2030.

Personal flying cars become commercially available for consumer purchase before 2032.

A commercially certified passenger eVTOL or flying car begins regular commercial passenger operations before 2030.

IMF PortWatch records a 7-day moving average of 10 or fewer transit calls in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by September 30, 2026.✗ didn't

A major commercial airline operates scheduled passenger flights with fully autonomous AI cockpits by 2035.

Flying cars or eVTOL air taxis account for over 100,000 passenger trips annually before 2035.

Commercial flying car or air taxi services become open to the general public before 2028.

A commercially certified flying car or passenger eVTOL begins public sales before 2030.

The United States enacts a mandate requiring automakers to include free AM radio in new vehicles.

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal operational levels before the end of 2026.

IMF Portwatch reports Strait of Hormuz 7-day average ship transits at or above 60 before 2027.