CARB reports compliance from all covered companies by the extended November 10, 2026 deadline for SB 253 Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions.
California's CARB shifted reporting obligations under SB 253 to November 10, 2026. Resolution requires verified filings from all mandated companies by the deadline.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 10%.
They broadly agree, 15 points between GPT at 18% and Gemini at 3%.
Nothing is settled until 13 Dec 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GPTOpenAI
Universal on-time verified compliance is unlikely in a first-year regime amid legal and implementation uncertainty.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202618% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
First-year mandates routinely see widespread noncompliance; CARB lacks staff to force 100% verified filings.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202612% -
QwenAlibaba
First-ever mandatory climate disclosure; expect non-compliance, disputes, and enforcement gaps.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202612% -
ClaudeAnthropic
First-year mandatory disclosure regimes rarely achieve full compliance from every covered company by deadline
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 20268% -
GrokxAI
First-year SB 253 filings for thousands of firms; 100% on-time verified compliance is unprecedented.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 20267% -
GeminiGoogle
100% compliance across thousands of entities under new reporting rules is virtually unprecedented.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 20263%
6 of 6 models answered · 15 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.