Climate change triggers the collapse of human civilization before 2075.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 3% by 3 Sept 2076. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

3% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2076-09-03.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 4% — Fatal global societal collapse requires cascading failures beyond climate shocks alone within 50 years. IPCC and mainstream climate modeling predict acute regional strain and high adaptation costs by 2075, not global systemic death. Globalized infrastructure and agriculture have substantial redundancy, dampening climate stresses short of total institutional ruin. Fast positive feedback runaways, such as sudden multi-meter sea rise and simultaneous breadbasket failures, are needed to shift odds.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 1% — Requires formal international consensus on total civilizational collapse from warming within 50 years—essentially unprecedented. No climate model or major body (IPCC, UN) projects full civilizational collapse by 2075 even under high-emission scenarios. Base rate for civilization-ending events in any 50-year window is near zero historically, even with wars and pandemics. Severe regional crises (famine, migration, conflict) are plausible but fall far short of the strict global collapse consensus required to resolve yes.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 4% — It turns on whether warming causes irrecoverable global state and infrastructure failure, not merely severe regional disasters. IPCC assessments project escalating harms through 2100 but do not identify a likely pathway to worldwide societal collapse by 2075. A literal resolution needs broad recognition by major bodies after global systems fail; that threshold is far above famine, conflict, or migration crises. I would raise this sharply if rapid ice-sheet loss or compound crop failures triggered sustained breakdown across several major powers before 2050.

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Grok (xAI): 2% — UN/IPCC-level consensus that warming fatally collapsed global infrastructure by 2075. IPCC SSPs project 2–4 °C by 2100 with adaptation, never civilizational failure; no body has declared global collapse. 49 years is too brief for even high-end warming plus feedbacks to overwhelm worldwide energy, food and governance. Only an unmodeled cascade (simultaneous breadbasket collapse plus nuclear war) would move this; current paths do not.

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DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 3% — No scientific body has ever defined or detected civilizational collapse from warming, and the 50-year window is too short for that consensus to form. IPCC AR6 projects warming of 1.5-4.5C by 2100 with severe regional impacts, but explicitly avoids 'collapse' framing; no major body has endorsed it. Even worst-case scenarios (RCP8.5) show adaptation and partial societal continuity through 2075, not fatal global infrastructure failure. Base rate for civilizational collapse predictions is near zero; past alarms (Malthus, Club of Rome, Y2K) failed to materialize as defined.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 3% — Civilizational collapse requires near-total institutional failure across multiple continents simultaneously, which has no precedent. No major forecasting body (IPCC, UN, intelligence agencies) projects full civilizational collapse by 2075 even under worst-case RCP8.5 scenarios; they project severe… Historical civilizational collapses (Bronze Age, Western Rome) took decades to centuries and involved multiple compounding factors beyond climate alone; modern global… The resolution criterion requiring consensus among major international bodies that infrastructure has 'fatally failed' sets an extraordinarily high bar—no such…

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