Commercial shipping fully resumes through the Strait of Hormuz after Tehran's conditions are met.
Tehran has restricted transit amid tanker attacks, maintaining that transit will not reopen without key demands satisfied.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel thinks this is unlikely: the median is 26%.
They do not agree: GPT puts it at 61% and Claude at 9%, 52 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 5 Apr 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
-
GPTOpenAI
The odds hinge on whether a negotiated Iran-US/Gulf de-escalation produces verifiable security and sanctions concessions by spring 2027.
- Iran’s leaders must define demands as met, while the US, Gulf states, insurers and shipowners must accept the security arrangement.
- Six months is enough for a ceasefire-style bargain, but durable reopening after an interstate maritime crisis is historically uneven.
- A verified halt to tanker attacks plus an announced sanctions or security deal would materially raise the outlook; escalation would sharply cut it.
61% -
QwenAlibaba
This turns on whether Tehran's demands are specific enough to be met and whether the US/allies would concede under economic pressure.
- Tehran's 'conditions' are unspecified; historically Iran has used Hormuz threats as leverage but never fully closed it, making full closure unprecedented.
- Six months is a long window for economic pain to force concessions, but US/Israeli military posture makes formal capitulation to Iranian demands politically toxic.
- A partial reopening under a face-saving framework is more likely than 'fully resumes after conditions are met' as literally stated.
37% -
GrokxAI
Iran meeting core demands then fully reopening Hormuz in six months.
- Tehran must extract verifiable concessions (sanctions relief or nuclear terms) from the US/EU before April 2027, then lift restrictions.
- Hormuz has never been fully closed for months despite 1980s tanker war and 2019 attacks; oil-export dependence and US/Gulf escorts keep traffic flowing.
- A sudden US-Iran deal or ceasefire would raise odds, but six-month diplomatic cycles and current tanker-attack standoff sit well below that base rate.
28% -
GeminiGoogle
Tehran's maximalist demands will not be formally met by Washington or regional rivals, even if pragmatic de-escalation occurs.
- Meeting stated conditions requires major US sanctions relief or strategic concessions that the US executive branch cannot deliver.
- Past Hormuz crises resolved through tacit deterrence or unilateral shipping escorts rather than formal acquiescence to Iran.
- A formal multilateral pact or ceasefire trading sanctions relief for maritime transit would be the main signal to reverse this view.
23% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
This turns on whether Washington and Tehran trade sanctions relief for free transit before April 2027.
- Iran's IRGC Navy controls the Strait; only Khamenei can authorize a full reopening, and he has tied it to sanctions relief and an end to US naval escorts.
- The 2019-2021 tanker-war precedent saw no full normalization without a nuclear deal, and the JCPOA took 12+ months of talks; no comparable track is open now.
- A US-Iran interim deal or a Gulf-brokered ceasefire that includes Hormuz guarantees is the one development that would flip this above 50.
22% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Hinges on Iran dropping maximalist conditions or a negotiated sanctions/security deal before April 2027.
- Iran has never fully closed Hormuz historically, so 'restricted transit reopening via conditions met' is an unusual framing suggesting ongoing low-level disruption…
- A formal resolution requiring Tehran's explicit demands being satisfied implies a diplomatic breakthrough (sanctions relief, security guarantees) which has not…
- Base rate for full normalization after an active maritime conflict/restriction episode within 6 months is low given US-Iran tensions, Gulf state wariness, and insurance…
9%
6 of 6 models answered · 52 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 7 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.