Security & Defense predictions

76 dated questions on cyber, drones, nuclear, defense budgets — each one answered independently by six frontier models, none of them shown the market price. Of those, 5 have passed their deadlines and been graded against cited sources.

Security & Defense predictions

A localized humanitarian ceasefire takes effect in the Oleshky area of Kherson as announced.

A total internet blackout occurs in Iran by December 31, 2026.

Capcom reports additional compromised accounts beyond the initial 11.7 million Capcom IDs.

U.S. federal civilian agencies complete the removal of DeepSeek products from IT systems pursuant to the DHS order.

Iran launches a direct military strike against Israel following border airspace maneuvers.

IAEA nuclear inspectors are permitted to return to Iran.

Israel launches a major military operation in the West Bank following the October 23 checkpoint attack.

Saudi Arabia or allied forces launch confirmed retaliatory strikes following the October 2026 Houthi attacks on Riyadh.

The United States officially halts or reduces intelligence sharing with Ukraine.

Commercial shipping incidents occur in the Strait of Hormuz before January 2027.

Houthi forces conduct further missile or drone strikes targeting Saudi Arabian territory before December 2026.

The UN announces a formal ceasefire agreement in Yemen by the end of 2026.

The United States commences a military invasion of Cuba in 2026.

Houthi military forces enter Aden, Yemen by December 31, 2026.

The United States enacts a military draft before the end of 2026.

Commercial vessels face further confirmed attacks in or near the Strait of Hormuz by the end of October 2026.

The United States joins Saudi military strikes against Houthi forces in Yemen.

Russia and Ukraine reach a mutual ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026.

Houthi forces launch a new claimed attack against Saudi infrastructure.

President Trump announces direct US military action against the Houthis in Yemen.

The Saudi-led coalition conducts retaliatory military strikes against Houthi targets following the Riyadh airport attack.

The United States conducts military strikes against Iran before the November 2026 midterm elections.

Pakistani and Turkish military forces officially deploy to Saudi Arabia.

Commercial shipping fully resumes through the Strait of Hormuz after Tehran's conditions are met.

The United States reinstates the military draft before 2030.

The United States reinstates a military draft in response to a major global conflict before 2030.

A major cyberattack disables critical US energy infrastructure before 2028.

The Pentagon deploys a third aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East before December 31, 2026.

The United States conducts military strikes against Iran between November 4, 2026, and December 31, 2026.

Hamas or other Gaza-based armed groups take formal steps to disarm under the existing ceasefire framework.

Iran or the United States engages in renewed military action or imposes maritime restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Israel officially blames Iran or its proxies for the September 2026 FlyDubai stabbing incident by October 31, 2026.

A quantum computer decrypts standard 2048-bit RSA encryption before 2035.

Ethiopian pro-government forces maintain control of the newly captured strategic town in Tigray.

Russia conducts a military strike beyond Ukraine's borders against a European nation.

The United States reinstates a military draft before December 31, 2028.

A major cyberattack disables critical infrastructure in a G7 nation before December 31, 2026.

Pro-Iranian Shi'ite militias in Iraq disarm by the end of September 2026.✗ didn't

President Trump orders renewed attacks in the Iran war before the 2026 midterm elections.

Pro-Iranian Shi'ite militias in Iraq disarm by 30 September 2026.✗ didn't

Houthi forces retain control of the Red Sea port of Mokha through October 2026.

Russian forces enter the city of Dobropillia by December 31, 2026.

NATO and Russian military forces clash directly by December 31, 2026.

The United States reinstates a military draft before the end of 2027.

Jaguar Land Rover reports full remediation of its publicized cyber attack before December 2026.

The US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency issues an Emergency Directive for a critical national zero-day vulnerability before November 2026.

A major cyber incident causes over $1 billion in direct economic damages worldwide before the end of 2026.

A major cyber attack disables critical infrastructure in the United States before the end of 2026.

The United States announces the end or suspension of its naval blockade of Iran by September 30, 2026.✗ didn't

Saudi Arabia and the Houthis announce a formal ceasefire agreement.

Officials meeting in Paris announce an agreed post-UNIFIL security transition plan for southern Lebanon.

A direct military clash occurs between NATO forces and Russia by October 31, 2026.

Houthi forces lose control of the newly seized Red Sea port city.

The United States or Iran conducts a new military strike against the other.

Tehran officially declares a restricted maritime zone outside the Strait of Hormuz in September 2026.

Israel carries out strikes on soil in at least four distinct countries during 2026.

The United States approves a formal military assistance package to Saudi Arabia following the Houthi offensive.

Russia and Ukraine observe a reciprocal three-day halt on strikes targeting Kyiv and Moscow.✓ happened

Israel formally establishes a new security zone inside Lebanese territory.

Houthi military forces enter Aden by September 30, 2026.✗ didn't