Crew-12 undocks from the International Space Station on October 7, 2026.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 58% by 11 Oct 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

58% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-10-11.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 57% — Undocking exactly on October 7 hinges entirely on recovery zone weather off Florida remaining within tight Dragon limits. NASA and SpaceX have already targeted October 7, meaning nominal station handover and vehicle readiness are on track. Dragon splashdown weather criteria cause scrub rates near 40% across past Commercial Crew returns, making a delay likely. Any unfavorable wind, wave height, or lightning in primary and alternate recovery sites will slip the undocking day-to-day.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 15% — Crew mission undock dates routinely slip days due to weather, handover timing, or vehicle readiness. Undocking depends on favorable weather at splashdown sites and ISS handover completion, both frequently causing multi-day slips. Historical Crew Dragon undocking/splashdown dates have shifted from initial target by 1-5 days in majority of past missions. This forecast is over a year out from a hard NASA-confirmed date, making precise single-day accuracy unlikely; a storm system or ISS scheduling change would shift it.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 57% — A nominal October 7 departure is plausible, but weather and ISS operations commonly shift crew return dates by days. NASA, SpaceX, and ISS flight control must approve undocking and a safe Gulf/Atlantic recovery corridor by October 7. Crew return targets often slip for weather, sea state, spacecraft checks, or ISS traffic; a four-day resolution window limits recovery time. A published weather forecast showing acceptable conditions across backup zones by October 6 would raise the odds most.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 58% — Whether Gulf splashdown weather on 7-8 Oct stays inside Dragon limits. NASA/SpaceX locked the 7 Oct undock only 3 days out, so the window is already weather-gated rather than operationally open. Four of the last seven Crew returns slipped 1-2 days for recovery weather; that ~40 % delay rate is the relevant base. A now-clean 72 h forecast would push the number into the 70s; any tropical wave in the Gulf would collapse it below 15.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 78% — A three-day-old launch slip is the only real threat; hardware and crew are already certified. NASA/SpaceX set Oct 7 as the target after weather pushed the launch, so the vehicle and crew are already at the pad and certified. Undocking needs only a favorable forecast at splashdown zones; a single bad wave-height call can slip it 24-48h, as happened on Crew-9. Base rate for on-time undocking once a firm date is set is roughly 80%; this sits slightly below because October Atlantic recovery weather is the most volatile month.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 78% — Weather at splashdown site and ISS schedule flexibility are the main risks to hitting the exact date. Crew missions undock on target ~85-90% of the time when weather cooperates; scrub rates for SpaceX splashdowns are historically low but nonzero. A 4-day window (Oct 7-11) gives only a few days of slack; a single weather scrub could push past Oct 11 depending on recovery ship positioning. If Crew-12 has already been on station for its nominal ~6-month duration, NASA strongly prefers the targeted date to avoid crew rotation overlap complications.

Crew-12 undocks from the International Space Station on October 7, 2026.

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