Developers receive a revised permit or win an appeal to proceed with the Raritan Bay underwater methane pipeli

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 22% by 29 Sept 2027. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

22% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2027-09-29.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 22% — Success requires overcoming entrenched state-level denial and judicial skepticism within a tight 12-month window. New York and New Jersey environmental regulators have repeatedly blocked Section 401 water quality certifications for NESE. Supreme Court review or en banc reversal faces steep historical odds, rarely granted for circuit-level NEPA/CWA vacaturs. Williams would need to fully overhaul environmental impact filings, a FERC process that typically takes longer than one year.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 30% — Turns on whether developers pursue en banc/Supreme Court appeal or refile a corrected permit application within regulatory timelines by Sept 2027. Developers typically respond to adverse 3rd Circuit rulings by either seeking rehearing/cert or amending applications, a process that often takes 2-4 years given agency… Base rate for major infrastructure projects overturned on appeal getting revived within a single year is low, especially for contested underwater pipeline projects… A key swing factor: if the court's ruling was narrow/procedural rather than substantive, a quick fix and resubmission could plausibly clear agency review within the…

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 63% — A year gives the sponsors time to cure the permit defects, but a successful appeal is less likely than a remand-driven revision. The developers and the relevant federal permitting agency must issue a defensible amended authorization before 29 September 2027. Vacated environmental permits are often reissued after supplemental analysis, but underwater pipeline impacts invite sustained state and NGO challenges. A prompt remand order or agency reopening the record in 2026 would raise the odds; a new injunction or state-water denial would cut them sharply.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 22% — Williams must get NJDEP/Corps to reissue a WQC or permit that survives the 3rd Cir. defects inside 12 months. Williams refiles addressing the court's specific legal gaps; agencies then run notice-and-comment that routinely lasts 6-18 months. Post-remand fossil-fuel permits in NY/NJ succeed ~20% of the time within a year; SCOTUS cert-and-reverse of a 3rd Cir. environmental ruling is <2%. A sudden partisan flip in Trenton or Albany, or an explicit FERC/Corps fast-track order, would be the only development that moves this above 40.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 22% — Turns on whether the 3rd Circuit grants en banc or Supreme Court review before the clock runs out. The 3rd Circuit panel vacated the permit; the developer must now seek en banc rehearing or cert, both of which take 6-18 months. FERC would then need to issue a revised authorization, and the D.C. or 3rd Circuit could again stay it, as happened in prior pipeline cases. Base rate for appellate reversals of environmental permit vacaturs is low, roughly 15-25%, and this project faces organized state opposition.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 22% — The 3rd Circuit ruling is binding precedent in this circuit; reversal or a compliant re-permit within 12 months is unlikely. The 3rd Circuit's decision sets a high bar—any revised permit must survive the same legal standard that killed the original, and the Army Corps or FERC would need to… Appeals to SCOTUS from circuit court permit denials are rarely granted cert, and even if granted, a full merits decision before Sept 2027 is a long shot given typical… Pipeline permit reversals after circuit-level losses historically take 2–4 years to resolve through re-permitting; a 12-month window sits well below that base rate.

Developers receive a revised permit or win an appeal to proceed with the Raritan Bay underwater methane pipeline expansion project.

What each one said

Developers receive a revised permit or win an appeal to proceed with the Raritan Bay underwater methane pipeline expansion project.

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