Donald Trump signs an executive action renaming artificial intelligence by September 30, 2026.
Requires an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum establishing a new official federal name for AI.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 3%.
They broadly agree, 2 points between Gemini at 4% and Grok at 2%.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 35%, so the models are 32 points less confident than people with cash on the outcome — one of the wider gaps in the archive.
Nothing is settled until 1 Oct 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- -32 pts
- Volume
- $173K
The models are sharply less confident than traders risking real money: 3% against 35%.
What each one said
-
GeminiGoogle
Trump often riffs on rebranding concepts, but formal executive actions codifying semantic renames are exceptionally rare.
- With only six days until the resolution date, drafting and signing an executive order on naming conventions is improbable.
- Federal policy and international standards universally entrench 'artificial intelligence', making bureaucratic execution jarring.
- A direct public promise at a late-September rally to sign such an order before October would rapidly shift these odds.
4% -
ClaudeAnthropic
No credible signal Trump has proposed or is close to formally renaming AI via executive action.
- No prior executive order, statement, or leak indicates a federal AI renaming initiative is underway.
- Base rate for such a novel, symbolic bureaucratic action within a narrow ~6-day window is extremely low.
- Only a sudden viral Trump statement followed by rapid formal action could flip this, which hasn't been reported.
4% -
GPTOpenAI
It hinges on a publicly signed directive in the next week, with no visible federal process pointing to a terminology replacement.
- Trump or White House staff must draft, clear, and sign a qualifying EO, proclamation, or memorandum by September 30.
- Federal AI actions historically regulate use, safety, procurement, or innovation; they almost never replace the technology's standard name.
- A leaked draft, announced signing event, or official push to relabel AI before September 30 would sharply raise the odds.
3% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Trump has six days and no publicly teed-up AI renaming order; this is a rumor-driven long shot.
- No executive order, proclamation, or memorandum renaming AI appears in the Federal Register or Trump's public schedule as of September 24, 2026.
- Trump has floated names like 'Superior Intelligence' rhetorically, but no agency has been directed to adopt one and no draft order has surfaced.
- The base rate for any specific unannounced renaming EO signing within a six-day window is very low; even high-salience Trump orders typically leak or get previewed days…
3% -
QwenAlibaba
Trump has shown no interest in renaming AI and has only 7 days left to produce such an order.
- No credible reporting, draft EO, or White House signal suggests a rename effort is in progress as of late September 2026.
- Trump's AI-related actions have focused on deregulation and infrastructure (e.g., Stargate), not rebranding the technology itself.
- A last-minute EO would need OMB/legal review and a stated policy rationale; none of that groundwork is visible, making a surprise signing in 7 days extremely unlikely.
3% -
GrokxAI
Trump would have to issue a qualifying EO/proclamation/memo in the next six days.
- No public draft, White House schedule item, or agency directive exists as of 24 Sep; EOs of this type are not last-minute.
- Presidents have never renamed a core technology via executive action; base rate is effectively zero.
- Only a sudden, unannounced signing this week would flip it, which has no supporting signal.
2%
6 of 6 models answered · 2 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum that adopts a new official name for artificial intelligence, or directs a federal agency or the federal government to adopt one, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying action must replace or supersede "artificial intelligence" as the federal government's designation for the technology itself. Any replacement name qualifies, including "Superior Intelligence", "Extreme Intelligence", "Supreme Intelligence", or "Genius Intelligence"; the name chosen has no bearing on resolution. An order that directs an agency to adopt or implement such a name within a stated period qualifies. Statements, speeches, interviews, press conferences, and social media posts, including polls posted to social media, do not count. Renaming a federal office, agency, program, task force, commission, or military service, such as an "AI Force", does not count unless the same action also renames the technology itself. Renaming a specific product, model, or private-sector system does not count. Incidental use of an alternative term in the text o
Question sourced from Polymarket on 24 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.