Football Manager 26 editions leave Xbox Game Pass on November 10, 2026.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 84% by 2 Dec 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

84% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-12-02.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 93% — Microsoft rarely alters announced Game Pass departure dates just days before removal. Games officially scheduled to exit the service within ten days follow through over 95% of the time without licensing extensions. Sega routinely pulls annual sports titles precisely as new iterations launch to drive fresh engagement and sales. A last-minute contract renewal or server-side delay of 24-48 hours represents the only plausible failure mode.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 78% — Microsoft's own posted leaving-date rarely slips; question is whether it happens exactly as listed. Xbox Game Pass leaving dates are set by publisher contracts and almost always execute on the listed date barring renewal. Occasionally titles get renewed/extended at the last minute or removed early, introducing some uncertainty. No public signal yet of an extension deal for Football Manager 26, so base rate for scheduled departures holding applies.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 86% — This mainly turns on whether Microsoft and Sega renew the standard one-year Game Pass licensing deal before expiry. The listed November 10 removal date is only eight days away, leaving little time for a renewal announcement or store update. Game Pass departures usually occur on their published date; late reversals are uncommon but do happen for renewed publisher deals. A public Microsoft or Football Manager announcement that the games are staying before November 10 would sharply lower this forecast.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 82% — Xbox honors the posted Nov 10 leaving date unless it issues a last-minute extension. Microsoft/Xbox Game Pass ops must either pull both FM26 SKUs on 10 Nov or publicly extend them before then. Most announced Game Pass exits occur on the listed day; popular annual sports titles sometimes get 30-60 extra days but that is usually flagged weeks ahead. An unannounced stay-on-Pass decision in the next eight days would be the main thing that flips this.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 82% — It turns on whether a publisher–Microsoft deal ends or gets extended before the listed November 10, 2026 removal date. Sega and Sports Interactive signed an Xbox Game Pass day-one deal for FM26, and such licensed titles typically leave after 12 months (e.g. FM24 left in Nov 2024)… Microsoft's Game Pass departure page already lists the November 10, 2026 removal, and such listings rarely get retracted once posted. Football Manager is annualised; Sega would have little incentive to extend FM26's Game Pass run once FM27 launches in November 2026.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 93% — Scheduled Game Pass removals almost never get reversed once publicly announced. Game Pass departure dates are set by Microsoft/Sports Interactive contractually; last-minute reversals are essentially unheard of. The event is only 8 days out, leaving no realistic window for a renegotiation or delay to materialize. A development that would change this: an official announcement extending the license, which has no precedent for FM titles.

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