Global mean sea level rises by more than 10 centimeters above 2020 baselines by 2035.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 8% by 15 Oct 2036. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

8% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2036-10-15.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 4% — Hitting 10 cm above 2020 by 2035 requires an average rate of 6.7 mm/year, far above the current ~4.5 mm/year trajectory. NASA satellite altimetry tracks current sea level rise at 4.3 to 4.6 mm/year, putting expected 2020 to 2035 rise near 6.5 to 7.0 cm. Reaching 10 cm would demand an unprecedented tripling of Antarctic or Greenland mass loss within the next nine years. A massive multi-year El Nino can temporarily elevate satellite sea level by up to 1 cm, but still leaves the total well short.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 3% — Current sea-level rise rate (~4mm/yr) makes 10cm by 2035 physically impossible without extreme acceleration. Satellite altimetry shows global mean sea level rising ~3.5-4.5mm/year, implying only ~5-6cm cumulative rise by 2035 from 2020 baseline. Reaching 10cm by 2035 would require roughly doubling the current rate almost immediately with no such acceleration observed in NASA/NOAA data through 2026. Only a shift-changing event like unprecedented ice-sheet collapse could move this, and no such signal exists in current trends.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 57% — Whether the 2020s acceleration persists long enough to add roughly 6–7 cm beyond today’s level is decisive. NASA’s satellite record rose about 4.5 cm from 2020 through 2025, leaving a demanding but plausible further gain before 2035. At the recent roughly 4–5 mm/yr trend, the threshold is marginal; ENSO-driven spikes can determine annual crossings. A sustained rate above 6 mm/yr or a large late-decade El Niño would raise this sharply; rate reversion would defeat it.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 12% — Whether ice-sheet melt accelerates far beyond the current ~4.5 mm/yr GMSL trend. NOAA/NASA altimetry must show >100 mm vs 2020 mean by end-2035; IPCC AR6 median is ~70 mm even under high emissions. Current 4.5 mm/yr plus 0.1 mm/yr² accel yields ~75 mm total; only rapid WAIS/GIS collapse would clear 100 mm. Base rate of such jumps in 15-yr windows is near zero since the 1993 satellite era.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 14% — Whether the observed altimetry trend near 4.5 mm/yr accelerates enough to add 10 cm in roughly 15 years. Satellite altimetry (NASA/NOAA) shows ~4.3-4.7 mm/yr since 2020, which alone yields only ~6-7 cm by 2035. Reaching 10 cm requires sustained acceleration to ~7 mm/yr, which would need faster ice-sheet loss than current GRACE data show. The 2023-2025 El Nino spike faded; a persistent acceleration in Greenland/Antarctic melt would most change this.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 3% — Would require sustained ~7 mm/yr average through 2035, far above the observed ~4.2 mm/yr and beyond any credible near-term projection. Current satellite altimetry shows ~4.0–4.5 mm/yr; reaching 10 cm above 2020 by end-2035 needs ~6.7 mm/yr sustained, a 50%+ jump with no physical mechanism identified. IPCC AR6 SSP5-8.5 projects only ~5–6 mm/yr by 2040 at the high end; even Greenland+Antarctic ice-sheet loss would need to triple current contributions within a decade. A development that would change my mind: collapse of Thwaites Glacier or a West Antarctic instability event producing >1 mm/yr additional contribution, but no such…

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