Global nuclear power generation capacity increases by at least 20 percent by 2035 compared to 2025 levels.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 38% by 22 Oct 2036. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

38% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2036-10-22.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 34% — China's rapid reactor buildout must dramatically outpace inevitable Western retirements within a tight nine-year construction window. A 20% net increase requires ~80 GWe net additions, but aging reactors in the US, France, and Japan face scheduled retirements. While ~60 GWe is under construction globally, median build times exceed eight years, leaving little time for unstarted projects. China adding 8-10 GWe annually is plausible, but Western small modular reactors will arrive too late to alter 2035 totals.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 12% — Hinges on whether enough new reactors (China, India, SMRs) connect to grid before 2035 to offset slow Western builds and retirements. Global nuclear capacity has grown roughly 1-2% per year historically; 20% in a decade requires ~1.8%/yr sustained growth with no offsetting retirements, which is above… China is adding reactors fast but Western reactor construction (EDF, US) remains slow and plagued by delays/cost overruns, while aging fleets in Europe/Japan face… IAEA PRIS data shows capacity growth has been nearly flat for 15 years; a sharp acceleration would require many simultaneous grid connections by early 2030s, which…

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 68% — This turns on whether China and India deliver enough new reactors to offset retirements in mature fleets. IAEA data put global operating capacity near 390 GW in 2025, so the threshold is roughly 468 GW by 2035. China’s build pipeline and India’s expansion can supply much of the needed net gain, while extensions curb OECD losses. Past nuclear forecasts often miss schedules, but record Chinese construction and life-extension policy lift odds; broad cancellation would reverse this.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 58% — Net +80 GW by 2035 hinges on China/India completions outrunning OECD retirements. ~60 GW already under construction; most finish 2028-34 if no major delays, China adding ~6 GW/yr. 2015-25 net growth was only ~5%; this decade sits above that due to policy but below IAEA high case. Life extensions in US/France and no wave of early closures would most raise odds; a China slowdown would cut them.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 42% — Turns on whether China's buildout plus restarts outrun Western retirements and slippage over nine years. China alone adds roughly 10-15 GW/yr, but 20% of ~400 GW global capacity needs ~80 GW net, far beyond its share. Western projects (Hinkley C, Vogtle, Flamanville) show 10-15 year lead times, so 2035 additions are already under construction or dead. Base rate for 9-year nuclear capacity growth is ~1-2%/yr historically; this case sits above it only if China sustains 8+ GW/yr net and Japan restarts most reactors.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 14% — Retirements in OECD fleets will eat most of the new capacity added by China and India, keeping net growth well under 20%. China adds ~45 GW and India ~10 GW by 2035, but OECD retirements (US, France, UK) likely remove 40–60 GW, capping net gain at ~10–15%. Large reactors outside China take 8–12 years to build; anything not already under construction by mid-2026 won't commission by 2035. IAEA high-case projections have historically landed at 10–15% growth over comparable windows, and no SMR is yet at commercial scale to change that.

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