IMF Portwatch reports a 7-day moving average of 60 or more daily transit calls in the Strait of Hormuz by October 31, 2026.
Geopolitical disruption has threatened Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes. Resolves yes if IMF Portwatch's 7-day average of ship arrivals reaches 60 by October 31, 2026.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel is barely on the yes side: the median is 55%.
They do not agree: Gemini puts it at 78% and DeepSeek at 18%, 60 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 3%, so the models are 52 points more confident than people with cash on the outcome — one of the wider gaps in the archive.
Nothing is settled until 1 Nov 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- +52 pts
- Moved this week
- -5 pts
- Volume
- $1.4M
The models are sharply more confident than traders risking real money: 55% against 3%.
What each one said
-
GeminiGoogle
Normal traffic in the Strait of Hormuz routinely exceeds 60 daily transits unless active military interdiction halts Gulf shipping.
- IMF PortWatch baseline transits for Hormuz typically fluctuate between 55 and 75 daily calls across all commercial vessel categories.
- Reaching a 7-day moving average of 60 requires only a mild seasonal surge or brief lull in regional tension before October 31.
- A direct Iranian blockade or widespread mine warfare shutting down Gulf tanker traffic through October is the primary failure mode.
78% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Depends on whether normal Hormuz traffic (typically ~60+ daily calls) stays undisrupted through Oct 31, 2026.
- Historical IMF Portwatch data shows Hormuz transit calls routinely fluctuate around 50-70 per day absent major disruption.
- No current acute crisis is closing the strait, and past geopolitical scares (2019, 2024) didn't sustainably drop traffic below 60.
- A new escalation (e.g., Iran-Israel conflict, mining, insurance spikes) before Oct 31 could suppress calls, which is the main downside risk.
72% -
QwenAlibaba
Hormuz traffic is already near this level; the question is whether it sustains or recovers to 60+ within one month.
- IMF Portwatch has historically shown Hormuz daily arrivals in the 50-70 range during normal periods; 60 is within the typical band, not an extreme threshold.
- Geopolitical disruptions (Houthi attacks, Iran-Israel tensions) have periodically depressed Hormuz transits, but the strait remains the primary route for Gulf oil…
- A sustained dip below 60 would require either a major escalation (Iran blockade attempt, direct attacks on tankers) or a prolonged demand shock; absent that…
72% -
GPTOpenAI
It turns on whether commercial traffic normalizes enough in October to lift a full rolling week above the threshold.
- IMF Portwatch must publish a qualifying daily observation by October 31, leaving only about four weeks for recovery.
- A 7-day metric requires sustained arrivals, so a short convoy surge or one-day reopening cannot resolve it.
- Major chokepoint disruptions often depress calls for weeks; a credible security deal or restored insurance cover would sharply raise odds.
37% -
GrokxAI
October recovery of Hormuz transits to a 60 7-day MA hinges on a rapid, sustained de-escalation that has not yet occurred.
- Iran, Israel and the US would need to halt attacks and insurance/war-risk premia would have to fall within days so that daily calls can average well above 60 through…
- PortWatch 7-day MA has sat well below 60 for weeks of disruption; historical chokepoint recoveries take 3–6 weeks after a ceasefire, leaving almost no calendar buffer.
- A single further strike or insurance-market freeze after 1 Oct would keep the MA under the threshold through 31 Oct.
28% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Whether Hormuz transit calls recover from war-risk-driven lows to a 60/day 7-day average within four weeks.
- IMF Portwatch normally shows Hormuz arrivals well above 60/day in calm periods, so the binding constraint is the current disruption, not structural capacity.
- Tanker traffic has been suppressed by insurance and rerouting since mid-2026; a return to 60 requires underwriters and majors to normalize within weeks, which…
- The one thing that flips this: a credible ceasefire or naval escort regime that visibly restores tanker transits before late October.
18%
6 of 6 models answered · 60 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for October 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
Question sourced from Polymarket on 30 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.