Indiana enacts a statewide data center moratorium by December 31, 2027.
States are evaluating utility and infrastructure strain from data centers. Resolves positively if Indiana enacts a statewide moratorium on new facilities before 2028.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 4%.
They broadly agree, 6 points between GPT at 9% and Gemini at 3%.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 14%, so the models are 10 points less confident than people with cash on the outcome.
Nothing is settled until 1 Jan 2028, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- -10 pts
- Volume
- $1.9M
The models are slightly less confident than traders risking real money: 4% against 14%.
What each one said
-
GPTOpenAI
Indiana would need an unusually broad bipartisan reversal of its current data-center investment policy in one legislative cycle.
- The General Assembly and governor must enact a binding statewide ban in the 2027 session, not merely tighten utility rules or incentives.
- Statewide moratoria on an industry a state is actively recruiting are rare; Indiana has emphasized data-center development and tax incentives.
- I would raise this sharply if 2026-27 grid reliability failures prompt Indiana regulators or legislative leaders to seek a 100-MW-plus freeze.
9% -
GrokxAI
Indiana GOP legislature and governor would have to pass a binding statewide ban, not just incentive pauses.
- 2027 regular session (Jan–Apr) is the realistic window; special sessions are rare and unused for this.
- No US state has enacted a >100 MW or all-new-facility moratorium; local pauses and tax-credit freezes are the observed pattern.
- Indiana remains incentive-heavy and grid operators have not declared emergency shortfalls that would force a reversal.
7% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Indiana's GOP-led government has actively courted data centers with tax breaks, making a statewide ban politically implausible.
- Indiana leadership (Gov. Braun, GOP legislature) has pursued data center investment as economic development, not restriction.
- No comparable US state has enacted a full statewide data center moratorium; local pushback has focused on specific projects/incentives, not blanket bans.
- A dramatic grid-reliability crisis or bipartisan backlash before the 2027 legislative session ending would be needed to flip this trajectory.
4% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Indiana's legislature would have to pass and Braun sign a ban in 2027 despite the state actively courting hyperscalers.
- Indiana's legislature meets January–April 2027; a statewide ban would need a bill introduced, committee-passed, and signed by Gov. Braun within that session.
- No US state has enacted a statewide data center moratorium; the closest precedents are local (e.g., Memphis, Loudoun County) and Georgia's 2024 tax-abatement pause, not…
- Indiana is a net data-center winner courting hyperscalers with its 2023 sales-tax exemption, so leadership has actively opposed restrictions rather than imposed them.
4% -
QwenAlibaba
Indiana's pro-business legislature and governor would need to reverse course sharply; no state has done this yet.
- No state has enacted a statewide data center moratorium as of late 2026; Virginia, Georgia, and others have debated but not passed binding ones.
- Indiana's Republican supermajority and Gov. Braun have actively courted data center investment (e.g., supporting utility buildout), making a reversal politically costly.
- A 180° shift would require a visible crisis (grid failure, massive rate spike) plus legislative session action by early 2027—no such trigger is currently emerging.
4% -
GeminiGoogle
Indiana's GOP supermajority actively courts tech capital and prefers utility-rate adjustments over blanket development freezes.
- The General Assembly strongly protects 2019's data center tax exemptions, making a broad prohibition ideologically anathema.
- Grid strain concerns are channeled into IURC rate hearings and local zoning disputes rather than sweeping statewide bans.
- A massive, catastrophic MISO grid failure directly traced to computing loads would be required to shift legislative momentum.
3%
6 of 6 models answered · 6 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Indiana enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by defaul
Question sourced from Polymarket on 3 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.