Indonesia's fire emissions for September 2026 remain the highest globally among national full-month tallies.
Indonesian wildfire emissions surged to 19.7 million metric tons in the first week of September. Satellite tracking data for the entire month will determine if the spike holds.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel is barely on the yes side: the median is 62%.
They do not agree: GPT puts it at 76% and Claude at 15%, 61 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 14 Oct 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GPTOpenAI
A very large first-week surge gives Indonesia a strong lead, though late-month fires elsewhere can overtake it.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202676% -
QwenAlibaba
Indonesia's Sept fire season is historically dominant; 19.7 Mt in week 1 implies ~60+ Mt monthly, hard to beat.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202671% -
GrokxAI
Mid-month Indonesia peat-fire spike already huge; Sept dry-season peak often tops national monthly totals, but Canada/Brazil/Russia can rival.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202662% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Early-September spike is huge; but Brazil/Africa fire seasons can out-emit Indonesia over a full month.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202662% -
GeminiGoogle
Brazil and boreal regions often produce massive late-season emissions that surpass Indonesia's monthly sum.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202637% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Question refers to Sept 2026, but data given is for Sept 2025; assuming pattern continues, DR Congo/Brazil often lead monthly tallies
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202615%
6 of 6 models answered · 61 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.