Iran formally accepts the US response regarding the plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 30% by 11 Nov 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

30% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-11-11.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 37% — Tehran typically stalls or demands revisions rather than giving clean, formal acceptance to US terms within a month. Iran's Supreme National Security Council must approve terms, but historically counters US frameworks rather than accepting outright. A 30-day window is very tight for Iranian consensus-building when domestic hardliners view Hormuz leverage as their primary card. A verifiable IRGC naval de-escalation protocol would shift odds up, but Tehran will likely demand sanctions relief before signing.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 12% — Hinges on whether Tehran's internal review ends in a formal acceptance announcement before Nov 11, 2026. Iranian formal acceptance requires Supreme Leader/National Security Council sign-off, a slow multi-actor process historically prone to stalling. Base rate for formal Iranian acceptance of US-brokered terms within a one-month window is low given decades of distrust and negotiation delays. A sudden economic pressure spike (shipping losses, oil price shock) forcing quick compromise would be the main thing that could change this.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 18% — Tehran must judge the U.S. reply sufficient before making a public commitment, with only 30 days for talks and approval. Iranian acceptance would likely require sign-off from the Supreme National Security Council and ultimately Ayatollah Khamenei. Comparable U.S.-Iran maritime de-escalation deals rarely reach formal agreement within a month amid an active transit disruption. A verified U.S. concession on sanctions relief, security guarantees, or implementation terms would sharply raise the odds.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 38% — Iran’s formal yes by 11 Nov turns on Khamenei clearing a US counter-offer while oil-flow pain still bites. IRGC and Supreme Leader must sign off inside ~4 weeks; past nuclear talks show Tehran routinely lets reviews slip past 30 days. 75% Hormuz drop creates rare urgency, lifting odds above the usual 20% acceptance rate for US replies, yet no public deadline exists. A leaked rejection or new Iranian counter-demand before 20 Oct would drop this sharply.

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DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 22% — This turns on whether Khamenei's office signs off on a US counteroffer before the November 11 deadline. Iran's Foreign Ministry said it is reviewing the US reply, but final authority sits with the Supreme National Security Council and Khamenei's office, which typically… Transit still down 75 percent means Washington has leverage, but past US-Iran exchanges (JCPOA talks, prisoner swaps) took months, not the four weeks left here. The one development that would flip this is a public IRGC or SNSC statement endorsing the US terms; absent that, silence or a counter-counteroffer is the base case.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 58% — Iran initiated the proposal and faces crushing economic pressure, but formal acceptance requires Supreme Leader sign-off on specific US terms. Iran proposed reopening, signaling genuine intent, and 75% transit loss creates urgent economic incentive to close a deal within weeks. Formal acceptance requires Khamenei's approval and IRGC buy-in; historically Iran delays public commitments even when privately agreed, often by weeks or months. A development that would shift this sharply: if the US response includes sanctions relief or security guarantees, acceptance probability jumps above 80%.

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