Iraq completes its roadmap to bring all weapons outside state control under government authority by June 30, 2027.
Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi set a target date to disarm non-state actors under an agreed roadmap. Resolution depends on official confirmation of disarmament completion by June 30, 2027.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 12%.
They broadly agree, 12 points between GPT at 18% and Claude at 6%.
Nothing is settled until 5 Oct 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
-
GPTOpenAI
It hinges on Baghdad compelling Iran-aligned militias to surrender arms without triggering a political or security rupture.
- The cabinet, parliament, security forces, and major Popular Mobilization factions must all comply by June 2027; a decree alone is insufficient.
- Iraq has repeatedly folded militias into formal structures without fully monopolizing force, making comprehensive disarmament within nine months atypical.
- Clear, verified militia handovers and enforcement against holdouts by early 2027 would materially raise the odds.
18% -
GrokxAI
Iran-aligned PMF factions must actually surrender independent command and heavy weapons, not just paper integration.
- The PM or successor has nine months from Oct 2026 to coerce Kataib Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl al-Haq and similar groups that have ignored every prior integration order since…
- Full militia disarmament in post-2003 Iraq or analogous MENA cases (Lebanon after 2006) has a near-zero base rate; this case sits no higher without a decisive external…
- A US-Iran bargain that trades PMF stand-down for sanctions relief is the single development that would most raise the odds.
18% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Iraq's roadmap deadline is a political aspiration, not an enforceable plan; the militias that matter answer to Tehran, not Baghdad.
- PM al-Zaidi's roadmap targets groups like Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq, which are integrated into the Popular Mobilization Forces and refuse to disarm.
- The PMF is legally part of Iraq's security forces, so 'outside state control' is undefined and no enforcement mechanism or verification body exists.
- Comparable Iraqi disarmament deadlines (2008 Basra, 2016 PMF integration) slipped or were never met; only a US-Iran deal or sustained military pressure would change this.
12% -
QwenAlibaba
PMF factions have veto power over any Iraqi government; no PM has successfully disarmed them since 2003.
- Every Iraqi PM since 2003 has pledged to bring weapons under state control; none has succeeded against PMF/tribal militias.
- PMF is embedded in the state itself via the Popular Mobilization Commission and holds parliamentary seats, making coercion politically impossible.
- A major shift would require either a US-Iran deal forcing PMF compliance or a catastrophic security event breaking militia cohesion—neither is on track.
12% -
GeminiGoogle
Entrenched Iranian-backed militias and tribal groups will not cede arsenals that guarantee their political survival.
- Kata'ib Hezbollah and Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq command tens of thousands of fighters and reject any unilateral disarmament decree.
- Similar roadmaps since 2008 have repeatedly stalled due to state-sanctioned parallel structures like the PMF resisting oversight.
- Only a formal surrender agreement verified by the Iraqi military before July 2027 would validate this, which is politically untenable.
7% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Disarming Iran-aligned militias by mid-2027 requires political will Baghdad has consistently lacked.
- Similar Iraqi disarmament pledges (post-2014, post-2019) repeatedly slipped or stalled due to PMF/militia political power.
- Iran-aligned factions hold parliamentary seats and military leverage, making full state monopoly on arms unlikely by this deadline.
- Only a major political realignment or external shock (US/Israel pressure forcing concessions) would meaningfully raise this probability.
6%
6 of 6 models answered · 12 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 5 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.