Irish residential property prices drop year-over-year before the end of 2027.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 22% by 29 Sept 2029. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

22% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2029-09-29.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 27% — Persistent acute structural undersupply shields Irish home prices unless a severe shock hits tech employment and income growth. Annual housing completions still sit around 35,000, far below the updated demand estimates of 50,000+ required annually. CSO RPPI drops require substantial wage contractions or sharp mortgage rate spikes, but ECB rates are in an easing phase. A massive corporate tax retrenchment or widespread multinational tech layoffs in Dublin would instantly flip this projection.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 22% — Turns on whether housing supply catches up or rates/economy weaken enough to flip persistent excess-demand-driven price growth negative. CSO RPPI has risen almost continuously since 2013 except brief 2019-2020 dips, showing structural undersupply keeps prices resilient. Government targets ~50k+ units/year but delivery still lags demand through 2026-2027, keeping upward pressure absent a demand shock. A recession, sharp rate hikes, or migration reversal could flip this, but current ECB easing bias and strong employment argue against near-term decline.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 37% — A recession or sharp mortgage-rate shock must overpower Ireland’s housing shortage long enough to depress sale prices. The CSO RPPI has had occasional annual falls, notably after the 2008 crash, but shortages make them uncommon in normal cycles. ECB rate cuts or stable employment through 2027 would preserve demand; unemployment or credit tightening would change this quickly. A year-over-year decline needs a sustained monthly weakening before December 2027, not merely slower growth.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 22% — A demand or rate shock must hit Irish housing before end-2027 while shortages persist. CSO RPPI needs a negative 12-month print in any month from Oct 2026–Dec 2027; ECB policy and Irish GDP would have to stall first. YoY declines have been rare since 2013 outside the GFC; chronic undersupply and immigration keep this case well below that base rate. A 2027 recession or sharp ECB hike would most change the odds.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 22% — A CSO annual decline needs a monthly print below its year-earlier level, and Irish supply is still far short of demand. CSO RPPI annual growth was still positive in 2026; a decline requires monthly prices to fall below 2025-26 levels, which needs a demand shock. The ECB has been cutting rates, easing mortgage costs, while Housing for All targets remain behind schedule, keeping supply tight. Base rate for Irish annual price declines in any 15-month window is low; 2008 and 2020 were driven by credit collapse and pandemic, neither present now.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 22% — Irish prices have never fallen YoY outside a crisis; supply is rising but demand fundamentals remain strong through 2027. Ireland's RPPI has shown YoY declines only during 2008-2013 and briefly in 2020; both required a macro shock, not just supply increases. Housing completions are rising toward 35k+ annually by 2027, but net immigration and household formation keep absorbing new supply at current pace. A recession, sharp ECB tightening, or credit tightening would be needed to flip this; absent that, base rate of a YoY drop in a non-crisis window is under 10%.

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